Advice on emissions budgets

Every five years, the Commission reviews Aotearoa New Zealand's emissions budgets that have already been set, and recommends the maximum level of the next emissions budget.

About these reports

Under section 5ZA of the Climate Change Response Act, every five years the Climate Change Commission must:

• review emissions budgets that are already set – we may recommend a budget be revised if there have been changes to the way emissions are measured or reported, or if significant changes have affected the considerations on which the emissions budget was originally based.
• recommend the maximum level of the next emissions budget

What this kind of advice includes

We advise the Minister of Climate Change on:

• The recommended maximum quantity of emissions in the next budget period, stating the amount by which emissions of each greenhouse gas should be reduced to meet the relevant emissions budget and the 2050 target.
• The rules that will apply to measure progress towards meeting the emissions budget and the 2050 target.
• How the emissions budget, and the 2050 target, may realistically be met, including by pricing and policy methods.
• The proportions of an emissions budget that are to be met by domestic emissions reductions and domestic removals alongside the appropriate limit on offshore mitigation that may be used to meet an emissions budget.
• Recommendations to revise the level of any notified emissions budgets due to methodological changes in the way emissions are measured and reported, or significant changes to the considerations on which the emissions budget was based.

It’s possible that different evidence will point in different directions. Our advice will include judgements on how to balance the evidence, and the impacts, related to the factors we are legally required to consider.

What the Commission must consider when preparing this advice

Specific matters that we must consider are set out in section 5ZC of the CCRA, and section 5M (where relevant).

Our analysis includes assessing options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Aotearoa New Zealand, including adoption of low emissions technology and behaviour change.

Though our analysis, we identify:

• the size of the emissions reductions possible
• the likely costs, benefits and wider impacts of each option, as well as potential barriers to its adoption.

We must also advise on the proportions of budgets that are met through emissions reductions and by domestic removals (such as removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by forests).

We consider the potential social, cultural, economic and environmental impacts of emissions budgets on New Zealanders, including how any impacts (positive or negative) may fall across regions and communities, and from generation to generation.

We must also consider the international context and actions by other parties to the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.