Advice report
Ināia tonu nei: a low emissions future for Aotearoa
Advice to the New Zealand Government on its first three emissions budgets and direction for its emissions reduction plan 2022 – 2025.
31 May 2021
About this report
Ināia tonu nei: a low emissions future for Aotearoa is the Commission's first advice to Government on climate action in Aotearoa New Zealand. The advice in this report details paths Aotearoa New Zealand can take to meet its climate targets.
It builds on draft advice we consulted on earlier in 2021. The report was delivered to the Minister of Climate Change in May and then tabled in Parliament in June 2021.
- Ko ngā reanga kei te tuatahi o ngā tahua tukuwaro e toru, e whakarārangi mai nei i te katoa o ngā tukunga hauwaro-whakamahana kua whakaaetia ki Aotearoa mō te roanga o ngā wahanga rima-tau ki te 2035, e anga atu ana ki ngā whāinga me tutuki mō te tau 2050.
- Ko te aronga o ngā tukanga me ngā rautaki me whai nei e te Kāwanatanga tōna mahere whakahekenga tuku hauwaro, ā, e whakarite mai nei i ngā tohutohu kia eke ai te whāinga a te tahua tuku hauwaro tuatahi.
- Ko ngā kōrero akiaki a Te Ahungaroa o Aotearoa me te whakahekenga o ngā hauwaro-whakamahana katoa, he hiahia ēnei nā te Minita Āhuarangi.
- the levels of the first three emissions budgets, which step down the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions allowed in Aotearoa over five-year periods to 2035, charting a course towards meeting the 2050 emissions reduction targets (2050 targets).
- direction on the policies and strategies needed in the Government’s emissions reduction plan, which will detail actions for meeting the first emissions budget.
- advice on the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and the eventual reduction in biogenic methane, as requested by the Minister of Climate Change.
Ināia tonu nei – Kia Whakahekea E Aotearoa Te Hauwaro
Kua mana te whāinga a Aotearoa kia korekore te taumata tuku i ngā hauwaro-whakamahana hei te tau 2050, ā, kia whakaheke hoki ko ngā haumewaro mā te 24-47% hei te tau 2050.
Ko tā ngā kōrero akiaki e tuku nei, he whakaatu atu a He Pou a Rangi i ōna wawata nui, i ōna whāinga nui, ka mutu, ko ōna huarahi whakawhitinga ki te ora – e taea ai e Aotearoa te tutuki me te whakapau i ōna kaha ki te whakatika i te āhuarangi.
I takea mai a Ināia Tonu Nei i ngā whakataunga motuhake ā Te Komihana me te aromatawai pāpono i ngā mātauranga whai take. Kua whakaritea e mātou ētahi kupu akiaki mā roto mai i te rangahau,i te aromatawai, i te whakariterite tauira, i te kōrero whiriwhiri me te whai whakaaro nui. Kua āta whakarite i runga anō i tā Aotearoa i kōrerotia i ngā uiuitanga huri i te motu.
E whakaatu mai ana ō mātou whāinga ka taea te timata, me te pono hoki o ēnei kōrero. Kei tēnei whenua tonu ngā hangarau me ngā rauemi e tika ana – kāhore he take o tā Aotearoa tatari ki ngā hangarau kei anamata. Ko tā ngā taunakitanga he whakaatu mai i te pai o te utu, he āheinga atu anō, ā, ki tēnei whakawhitianga kua puare mai ai te nui atu anō o ngā āheinga ohaoha. I o mātou uiuitanga i kitea hoki i te tautoko nui ā ngā Iwi huri i Aotearoa.
I te tatunga o ā mātou whakataunga whakamutunga, kua ea tō mātou wawata nui, ā mō nāianei ka taea hoki i tā mātou e hiahia nei. E tautoko ana tēnei i te tūranga o Aotearoa, whai muri i te aronga kore i roto i ngā tau, me te mahi nui me tutuki nei e Aotearoa kia whenua ora, kia taiao ora, ā, kia whenua whakaheke hauwaro mā ngā whakareanga hou.
E toru ngā wahanga ki ō mātou kōrero akiaki.
Ahakoa kei te Komihana te mahi kia hoatu kōrero akiaki ki te āhuarangi, kei te Kāwanatanga tonu te haepapa mō te whakarite i ngā tukanga matua e ahu ai te mahere whakaheke tuku hauwaro me te ahunga o tā Aotearoa e whai nei i te tuatahi o ōna tahua tuku hauwaro e toru ki te tau 2035.
I roto i ēnei kōrero akiaki, kua tutuki nei e te Komihana i tā te ture Whakatika Āhuarangi e kī mai nei. Ko tā te ture nei he whakarite i ngā whāinga me te huarahi whāia. Ko tā mātou he hoatu noa i ngā kōrero motuhake mā roto mai i ngā kōrero whai take hoki hei aruarunga tika mā Aotearoa, ā, kāhore hoki he utu.
Kei te Kāwanatanga ināianei te whakarite i ngā tahua tuku hauwaro me te whakahau i ngā tohutohu kei te rautaki whakaheke hauwaro.
Te tutuki i te wawata me te tika o te whakahau
I whāia e mātou ngā tohutohu katoa i kitea ki te ture, anō o te whakawhanake i ngā tahua tuku hauwaro me te whakataurite atu ki ō mātou wawata mō te nāia tonu nei. Kua whakaritea kia whakaatu atu he aha oti ngā ahunga ka taea e Aotearoa, kia tutuki i ngā whāinga hauwaro-whakamahana me ngā haumewaro, ā, e hāngai ana ki te rautaki tauroa.
Kua whai nei e mātou i ngā huarahi maha kia tutuki i ngā whakahau a ngā tahua tuku hauwaro. Kua whakatauria e mātou ēnei huarahi mā te whakamahinga o ngā hangarau maha kia kite i te rerekē o te āhua ka kitea rāpea ā te tau 2035. Ko tā ēnei tahua he whakaatu mai i tōna pīngore me tōna pakari ki ngā whakarerekētanga ohorere.
Ko tā mātou hiahia nui kia whakahīhī te Kāwanatanga, kia nukutere i tōna anga whakamua, ā, e āhei ai pea te tutuki i ētahi whāinga tuku hauwaro nui, ā, kia tau hoki i te mōhio kua kore hoki e whakatāroa anō ēnei mahi whakatika i te āhuarangi.
Mai i te oroko kōrero kōhukihuki, kua homai a Greenhouse Gas Inventory ngā matapae tuku hauwaro mō Aotearoa. Kua piki ngā tuku hauwaro tawhito hei whakaatu i te mahi a ngā pūtaiao hou. Hei tapiri noa, ko tā te rōpū nei he whakaatu mai kei te piki tonu ngā tuku hauwaro a Aotearoa.
Ko tā ēnei kōrero hou ka uaua hoki tō mātou whai i ngā hiahia ki te tau 2050. Nātemea, kua āmenehia o mātou tahua tuku hauwaro, ā, kua piki ake ngā nama i kitea ki ngā kōrero kōhukihuki nā te rerekē hoki o te wāhi timata.
Emissions budgets 2022 - 2035 (AR5) annual average emissions (PDF 133 KB)
Kei ia tahua, ka kite atu i te whānui o ngā whakaheke tuku hauwaro. I whakatauira atu ētahi huarahi e tāea ai e ngā tahua. Ko ō mātou tauira he whakatauira hoki i ngā tahua e tika ana mā Aotearoa, ā, kia 65% te whakahekenga o ngā hauwaro whakamāhana me te 17% te whakahekenga o ngā haumewaro hei te tau 2035.
Change in emissions compared to 2019 from our modelling (AR4) (PDF 72 KB)
Kāhore i te huarahi tika!
Nā te whakamana i ngā mahi e tika ana mā te āhuarangi, kua whakamana hoki e ngā kāwanatanga hou i te nunui o ngā tahua tuku hauwaro. Engari ahakoa te rerekē o ngā whāinga, he kotahi tonu te whai, anō o te whāinga paetata ki ngā whakatō rākau me te hoko i ngā hauhakenga o te moana, atu i te whai i ngā ahunga whakahekenga hauwaro ka kitea ki tōna mātāpuna.
Nā te kore hoki i whakatū tukanga e whakakore ai i ngā ohaoha hauwaro me te whakawhanake i ngā hangarau me ngā tikanga whakaheke tuku hauwaro, i whakamahia kētia e Aotearoa ngā ngahere i whakatō i ngā tau 1990 hei tūtohu tīmata i ōna mahi whakahekenga tuku hauwaro. Ko ngā hauhakenga o ngā hauwaro kei ēnei ngahere, ākuanei kua mutu. Ko ngā tahua whakahekenga tukuwaro nei kua piki ki te 26% mai i te tau 1990, ā, kua heke a Aotearoa ki tētahi tūnga uaua mēnā rā i moata te whakatū i ngā kaupapa, ngā rautaki me ngā mahere whakaheke tuku hauwaro.
E kite mai ana, kei ngā tukanga a te kāwanatanga o nāia nei kāhore oti i te tutuki i tā Aotearoa me whai nei, arā i tā te Komihana i ōna tahua whakahenga hauwaro, i ōna whāinga hoki mō te tau 2025. E tutuki ai ngā whakahau nei mō te tau 2050 me whai hoki ko ngā mema toa hei āki tere mai i tētahi rautaki aroā.
Te ahunga pae tawhiti hei āki i te toitūtanga o ngā whakahau
Ko tā ngā rautaki paetata kua tutuki i a Aotearoa, he mea whakatika i te āhuarangi o nāia nei. Ko te tahuaroa o te oranga he tauroa, ā, me matua mōhio ngā Iwi i te ahunga me te tere o tōna haere e utu tika ai i ngā mahi o ia rā, o ia rā. Me whakapau kaha ināianei, e kitea ai ngā hua o āpōpō.
Kua hoatu ki te Kāwanatanga o nāia nei te whakahau kia whai tautoko i ērā atu rōpū tōrangapū e mana ai ngā tahua nei, ā, kia tautohe hoki i tēnei take ki rō Pāremata. Me mana te tautoko me ngā kupu tautoko i te kaupapa toitū nei e ngā mema pāremata hei kōrero tūmatawhānui.
Te Takapauwharanui – te āhua tuku i ngā whakahekenga tuku hauwaro whānui
E pai ai, ā, e toitū ai ngā whakahekenga tuku hauwaro, me whakarite pūnaha e tika ana ki ēnei mahi tuku hauwaro.
E tutuki ai ngā tahua nei me whai tautoko nui. Ā, me tika te titiro ki ngā rōpū e taea te tautoko i te wawata kia whenua whakaheke tuku hauwaro a Aotearoa, rawa atu me whakahau i nāia tonu nei. Ko tā tēnei hoki, e ora ai tēnei kaupapa me eke ai te taha ki te hapori, ki ngā mahi tōrangapū, ki ngā manatū hoki. Nātemea, koinei tonu te herenga matua e kitea ai te toitūtanga o te ora.
Ka taea e te Kāwanatanga te ākina a Aotearoa mā te hoatu i te nunui o ngā whāinga hei whakaheke i te tuku hauwaro ā te wā, ā, kia whakarite hoki i ētahi kaupapa e tautoko ai te rangahau, te whanaketanga me te auaha mō te whakaheke tuku hauwaro anō te take.
Me tūpato, i roto i ō mātou hiahia kia whakaheke wawe i ngā tuku hauwaro, kua kore hoki e tika ai te taha ōhanga hei tautoko mai i ngā mahi whakahekenga tuku hauwaro ā ngā rā kei tua. Ko tō mātou whakahau he tohu i te iti o te whakaheke tuku hauwaro i te tuatahi, kātahi ka piki te tere o tōna tuku. He whakaatu atu tēnei i te roa o te wā hei tutukinga mā mātou.
He nui tonu ngā whakapōrearea mō te taha ki wā ka tau mai ētahi hangarau whakaheke tuku hauwaro ki tēnei whenua, ā, he aha hoki ētahi huarahi hei whāinga mā Aotearoa e tere ai tōna hangahanga.
Hei tōna tīmatatanga, ka roa te terenga, ā, ka roa hoki ngā hua ka kite ki ngā whakahaerenga matua katoa. Hei tauira, mō te taha ki ngā waka-hiko ka roa hoki, ā, ka roa hoki te whakarite i ngā toa hokohoko ki ngā hangarau hou nei, ko te tatunga hoki o ngā waka hio EV ki tēnei whenua, te whakarite huarahi hiko me te whakatō whare hiko, me te whakarite kia māma ai te utu ki te katoa.
Te Whakarite – kia toitū te kaupapa
Ko tētahi o ngā tino uauatanga ki ēnei kupu akiaki, ko te tau o te noho ki te ahunga o ngā mahi nā te iti o te whakapau kaha i roto i ngā tau me te whakarite kia toitū tōna haere. Me whakatere e Aotearoa, e tika ana hoki ki ngā Iwi ki te whakarite i a rātou anō, me te mea nei, kāhore oti e whakataimaha ana, ā, kāhore oti e whakapōikaha ana i te pani me te rawa kore.
Ki te pōturi te haere ka whakataha ko te mahi nui ki te whakatika i te āhuarangi, ā, ka noho ki o mātou rangatahi me ngā whakareanga e haere ake nei. Ko tā te nui o te rangatahi i kī mai, kua waiho kē mai e ngā kaumātua me ngā mātua i te haepapa nui ki a rātou, ā, i tō ngā tuākana koretake.
Ahakoa hoki, ki te hohoro te haere ka kino pea te pānga ki ngā Iwi. Kua ngaro pea i ētahi tūranga mahi, ā, kua kapi pea ētahi wāhi mahi, ētahi pakihi hoki – ahakoa rā ngā tukanga tika me te roa o te wā hoki. Kua whakaiti pea i te tautoko a ngā hapori me te whakatāroa i ngā mahi whakawhitiora nei. Mā te eke o te ohanga ki te karamatamata, mā te whakaratarata o te hapori ka eke hoki ngā whakareanga o nāianei me ngā whakareanga kei tua, ā, o roto i ngā tau ka kite i ngā hua o ngā mahi whakaheke tuku hauwaro nei.
E tutuki ai o mātou tahua tuku hauwaro, me eke ki te whāinga matatika, te whāinga tautika me te whāinga urutika. Hei whakamarama noa, me whakatika nei e te kāwanatanga te tūpono o te pānga kino me te āki hoki i ngā āheinga pai ka kitea e te whakaheke tuku hauwaro.
Ko te whakawhitianga ki tētahi ao whakaheke tuku hauwaro, he mea e tāea e te ohaoha me te whakaratarata hoki ā te tangata. E tutuki ai i tēnei kaupapa, me whakatere tika, me whakarite tika, me tohutohu tika, ā, me kotahi te whai ā ngā rōpū whai mana. Me whakarite tahi nei me ngā Iwi Māori, nātemea he Hoa-Tiriti tēnei ki te Karauna. Hei tēnei anō, he whakakotahi mai i ngā kaunihera ā rohe, ngā rōpū whakarite ōhanga ā rohe, ngā pakihi, ngā hungamahi, ngā uniana, ngā Iwi hauā me ngā rōpū hapori.
Engari, ko ētahi kei ngā hapori ka kino ake te pānga ki a rātou, ā, me eke te tukanga ki ngā oranga o ēnei hunga.
Mō te taha ki te Ahumahi, ka rerekē rawa atu i tō Aotearoa ahu ki te whakaheke tuku hauwaro. Mō te nui o ngā kaimahi me hoki ki te ako kia whiwhi pukenga hou, e taea ai te mahi ki tētahi ao e whai nei i ngā tikanga whakaheke tuku hauwaro. Heoi anō ko ētahi atu, ka uru ki ētahi atu tūranga kei te ao Ahumahi.
Me whakatō te Kāwanatanga ētahi tukanga hei tautoko i ērā e pōkaikaha nei, ā, me māmā hoki mā rātou. He mea nui tēnei, te whakaū i te matatika me te urutika a te whakawhiti tuku hauwaro nei, ā, me kaua rawa te kaupapa e tō mai anō i ngā raupatu ō mua me te whakatenatena i ngā nawe o nāianei. Me whai waahi mai e ngā rōpū kua pōkaikaha ki te kaupapa i tōna timatatanga, i tō te hangahanga-tukanga.
Ka rerekē te pānga a te whakahekenga tuku hauwaro ki tēnā Iwi, ki tēnā Iwi, ā, mō te taha ki te Kāwanatanga kei te āhua hoki o te hanga i te tukanga me te āhua o te wā ki ngā tukanga. Inā rā ngā kōrero akiaki he hoatu i te ahunga o te tukanga, kua whakawhāiti mai mātou ki te hanga punaha e tika ana, ā, e toitū ana.
I rangona hoki mō te taha ki ā mātou mahi ka nui kē te utu ki a Aotearoa. Ko tō mātou urupare, kua hoki ki te wetewete i te pōhēhē, kua whakamātau anō i ngā tauira, ā, kua whakamātau anō i te kaha o ngā whakaterenga. Kei tō mātou whakatau matua – e whakahī katoa ana i o mātou whāinga ka taea e Aotearoa te whakaheke tuku hauwaro me te whakatupu hoki i te ōhanga hei whakapiki hoki i te oranga.
Kua tirohia e mātou, ko te inenga Utu ki Ngā Hua ā Motu (GDP) ka heke mā te takiwā o te 1% ā te 2050, ā, kua kore e neke noa. Kei te rite hoki tēnei ine ki ngā taunakitanga kei tāwāhi. Inā rā te penapena pūtea ki ngā hangarau me ngā tikanga tuku hauwaro ka kitea ētahi āheinga hou me te whakaheke o te tūpono ki te mana o Aotearoa mō tōna korenga ki te whakatika i te āhuarangi.
Heoi anō, ki te whakatāroa anō i ēnei whakahau matua, ā, pēnā i te whai waka-hiko me te whakauru tikanga ahuwhenua e tika ana ki te taiao, ka kite pū anō i te heke o te inenga GDP mā te 2.5% ā te 2050.
Te Toitūtanga – te whakarite tika i te ahu o te tukanga
Ko te rautaki whakaheke hauwaro ā te Kāwanatanga, me homai whakautu ki ēnei kōrero akiaki me te whakarite i tētahi rautaki whakahirahira, e tatu ai ētahi tukanga hou e tika ana ki te whakawhitianga ki te whakaheke tuku hauwaro.
Ko tōna tikanga ka eke te rautaki ki te waha i ngā āheinga ki te whakaheke i te tuku hauwaro i nāia tonu nei me te whakapakari ake i te motu mō te whakahoro i ngā mahi whakaheke hauwaro ā te wā. Me mōhio a Aotearoa i ngā ahunga tika ki te hautū waka, ā, me tika te taenga atu o aua tohutohu hoki. Me tau ngā whakaaro e tutuki ai ngā whakataunga e tika ana ki te āhua o tō rātou noho, tō rātou mahi, ka mutu, tō rātou ao.
Inā rā te ahunga o ngā tukanga, i kohikohi nei e mātou ētahi utu e tika ana ki tō nāianei me te utu e tika ana ki ngā hangarau maha. I whakamātauria e mātou ētahi huarahi, me te kohikohi kōrero ki te ahunga tika o te wā me te ahunga tika ki te taiao e eke ai ngā whāinga 2050.
I hōmiro hoki te titiro ki ngā tukanga āhuarangi o Aotearoa, kia kite hoki i ētahi wahanga, i ētahi uauatanga, māna anō ko ētahi āheinga. I whiriwhiria e mātou te utu kia toitū te kaupapa. Mō te taha ki ia rāngai me ngā rāngai tūmatanui katoa, i kitea rā ngā uauatanga mō te whakaheke hauwaro, ā, he aha hoki te rautaki e utu tika ai ētahi kaupapa mō te wā roa.
I ētahi wahanga, pērā i te hono mai a Te Mana Rauhī Taiao (NZ ETS), he mea nui te urunga mai a ngā mātauranga whai take hei ārahi noa i ngā tukanga. I ētahi atu wahanga, ā, pērā i ngā tukanga tē aro i ngā tukanga āhuarangi i roto i ngā tau, ko tā mātou he aro tika atu ki ngā kaupapa whai hua.
Kua whakarite i ngā whakahau kia kite atu i te kaha o te ahunga mākete e hauraro ai te utu me ngā tohutohu ki te whakahekenga hauwaro. He rauemi whai mana Te Mana Rauhī Taiao. Engari, mā te Kāwanatanga tonu te mahi nui kia whakauru i ngā tikanga hei oranga ki te tangata, hei oranga hoki ki te utu mākete.
Ko ngā rangahau me ngā kōrero tuku iho kei tāwāhi he tohutohu i tā te kaupapa whakaheke tika i te hauwaro, me te whakauru i tētahi pae-aroā e noho kotahi nei ngā tukanga taiao me ōna utu. Ko tā mātou hoki ki te Kāwanatanga, me mau nei e tōna mahere whakaheke hauwaro i ētahi tohutohu ki te kaupare i ngā uauatanga me te whakaū i ngā tikanga auaha me ngā tikanga whakarite kaupapa toitū.
Me aro i ngā mātāpono kei Te Tiriti o Waitangi. Ā, me aro hoki i ngā pānga ka whakawhiwhingia e ngā uri, e ngā hapori, e ngā kaimahi, e ngā pakihi me ngā whānau. Me aro ngā tukanga ki te whakapūmau i te matatika, i te tautika me te urutika a te katoa.
Hei whakamutu ake, kei ngā kupu akiaki (kei te wahanga tuarua o tēnei pūrongo) he takune iho i ētahi tino tohutohu. Kei raro ko ngā whakarāpopoto. Ko tā te Kawanatanga mahi he whiriwhiri he aha hoki te hanga me te urutanga o ngā tukanga, hei tā ēnei tohutohu nui.
Key elements of our policy direction (PDF 231 KB)
Ngā panonitanga – me whānui tōna horapa
Inā rā te whakawhiti kia whakahekea e Aotearoa te hauwaro, ka panoni hoki te āhua ki te whakaputa ngao, te āhua ki te haere a te tangata, ki te āhua noho a ngā hapori me te ahunga o ngā pāmu. Ka kitea ētahi panoni ki te tangata me ngā tikanga whakahaere i ngā pakihi, ka rerekē hoki ētahi punaha tukanga, punaha hangarau hoki.
Kua tohutohu nei e mātou kia anga tika atu ngā mahi āhuarangi ki ngā rāngai kāwanatanga. Ko tāna, he tohutohu i ngā Minita me ngā ratonga, me tō haepapa nui, kia whakatinana i ngā tukanga me ngā rautaki whakaheke hauwaro, ā kāti, me tika hoki te noho ā ēnei haepapa ki runga i a rātou. Ko tā mātou anō, he whakahau i te kaupapa Vote Climate Change me te uru motuhake ki ngā ratonga whānui, e whakakotahi mai ai ngā rawa o nāianei rā anō ā te kāwanatanga ki te pūmautanga i ngā ture me ngā ahunga e tika ana ki te āhuarangi tika.
Kua aro tika atu o mātou whakahau ki tā te kawenata o Te Tiriti o Waitangi, ā, ka noho hei mataika i te rangamahi e whakawhiti atu ana ki te whai i te oranga toitū ki Aotearoa nei. Ko tā tēnei hoki e whakapūmau nei, ko te whakawhiti ora a te Iwi Māori, me te aronga kia whakaiti i ngā mamae ā ngā raupatu, māna he whakatika i te ahunga atu anō o ōna uri ki te karamatamata o te ora.
Kua rangona ngā hiahia a te Iwi Māori kia eke te kawanatanga ki te whakapūmau i te mana o tēnei whakahoahoa ā te Karauna ki te Māori. Mā roto mai i te āki nui kia noho a ngāi Māori ki ngā tūranga teitei, ka mutu, ngā tūru whai mana. Kua whakatinana Te Komihana i te tauira He Ara Waiora hei tohutohu mai i te ahunga o ngā tikanga mahi tahi ā te kāwanatanga ki te whakarauora i ngā tukanga kia whāia ko ngā tikanga Māori, hei oranga hoki mā te Iwi Māori.
He nui atu anō ngā painga a ngā mahi āhuarangi nei, pēnei i te taha hauora – nātemea ka mahana, ā, ka maroke pai nei ngā kāinga, ka piki te taha ki te hīkoi me te eke pahikara, ā, ka iti ake te haukino ki te āhuarangi. Ko tā enei painga hoki, he kite tika atu i ngā hua pai me te piki wawe mai o te ora a te tangata mō nāianei me ngā rā kei te heke mai.
Kāhore hoki te whakaheke hauwaro-whakamahana i te arotahi, kei te aronga o tana whakawhitianga ki te ora te mahi nui. Me takahi a Aotearoa i te huarahi e toitū ai te ora, ā, e pakari ai te tangata. He mātāpono nui ki te Iwi Māori.
Kei reira ngā aronga matua me whai nei e Aotearoa mēnā rā e hiahia ana ki te tutuki i ōna whāinga. Kua whakarite i ētahi huarahi e whakamātauria ana ā mātou tahua whakaheke hauwaro, e whakapūmau ana hoki i ngā aronga matua, me te whakamātau hoki mēnā ko te pōturi o te whanake hangarau, ko te whakarerekē waiaro rānei te take o te whakarerea i te kaupapa.
E ora mai ai tētahi kaupapa me titiro hoki i ōna pōhēhētanga. E whakawhiti atu ai kia whakahekea e Aotearoa te hauwaro me titiro hoki ki ētahi atu hangarau me te tokomaha hoki. Rawa atu i ngā mea kua whakatauira kētia, ā, ki tā te rere hoki a te ōhanga.
E whakaatu nei ō mātou tahua tuku hauwaro hoki i te momori me te maha o ngā huarahi ka taea e Aotearoa. He whakatau tēnei i te pono me whakaiti noa i ngā tūponotanga whakapōrearea, ā, kua kore e whakaroaroa hoki ngā mahi whakaheke tuku hauwaro.
Ko tā te ao e titiro nei i te whakapau kaha a Aotearoa
I ngā kohikohinga kōrero, ko ngā kupu me ngā urupounamu he aro ki te urunga o ngā tahua whakaheke hauwaro kōhukihuki e hāngai ana ki ngā whakapau kaha a te ao, ā, kia kaua e hipa atu i te whakamāhana i te 1.5°C, inā rā te whakatau a Te Ahungaroa o Aotearoa kāhore te whakataunga Parī i pērā noa.
E tutuki ai Te Ahungaroa, me whai i ētahi tukanga i tāwāhi. Ehara i te mea me iti rawa te mahi ā motu, engari me piki ake te whakapau kaha a Aotearoa ki tua atu o te wā kāinga.
Kei tā mātou e kite nei, kāhore hoki ngā whāinga a Te Ahungaroa e rite ana ki ngā whāinga o te whakaheke hauwaro-whakamāhana ki te 1.5°C.
Kua mana te ahunga o Aotearoa kia whakaheke i ngā hauwaro ki te 30% ki raro iho i tō ngā taumata 2005, tae noa rā ki ngā tau 2021-2030. E tika ai te mahi a Te Ahungaroa kia 1.5°C te whai, me eke ngā whakahekenga hauwaro mā te koni i te 36% ki raro iho mai i ngā taumata 2005, mō te tau 2030.
Heoi anō, kua kore te pūtaiao i tōna kotahi e tohu mai i ngā inenga e tika ana mā Aotearoa ki ngā whāinga a te ao. Me uru mai ngā kōrero a te hapori me ngā whakatau tōrangapū ki ngā tukanga ā te ao mō te mana taurite. Mā te Kāwanatanga o te wā te whakatau hoki.
Kua kitea i te ao whānui, i te mana nui o ngā whenua ki te tutuki i ngā whakahekenga hauwaro. Ahakoa he iti kē te mana o Aotearoa i tāwahi, he nui tonu te ōrau tāngata. Ko tā ngā whakahau nei he ahunga nui – engari ka eke rā anō Te Ahungaroa. Ko tā Aotearoa me ana mema tōrangapū mahi nui he āta whiriwhiri he aha kau te huarahi anga mua ki te urupare nui o te ao.
E pakari ake nei te hiahia
I te orokohanga mai o te komihana motuhake, o He Pou a Rangi i kite atu i te hiahia nui o Aotearoa kia pakari ōna whakariterite ki te whakaheke i te tuku hauwaro.
I whiriwhiria ngā whakaaro a te 15,0000 tāngata me ngā ratonga i tuku kōrero mai ki ō mātou kōrero kōhukihuki. He 4,000 tāngata hoki i haere mai ki ngā huihuinga a te Komihana me te tuku i o rātou wawata nui kia whakahekea e Aotearoa te hauwaro.
I roto i ēnei whakaritenga katoa, i rongo i tā Aotearoa whānui tautoko i te hiahia kia wawe te whakatika i te āhuarangi. Ahakoa hoki te rerekē o ngā hiahia, anō o te utu ki tēnei kaupapa, me te āhua o te noho o Aotearoa i te ao nei, ko tā mātou e whakapono nei e pakari ake ana te hiahia kia toitū ko te ora.
Ko te hiakai tēnā e rangona ana i te pānuitanga whakamutunga ki te ture Kore Hauwaro. Kua kite nei i roto i ngā marama e 18, kua kōrero ki a Aotearoa me te kite atu i tō rātou hiahia, me tō rātou urunga ki ngā tūranga teitei. E mārama ana te kite atu i tēnei ki ngā pakihi, ngā rōpū me te ao whakahiato ora, ngā hapori me ngā kairangahau.
Ko tā mātou hoki, me panoni e ngā mema tōrangapū ngā ture me ngā punaha kia māmā ai mā ngā Iwi me te ao ahumahi, kia pai ai ngā whiriwhiringa take whakaheke hauwaro.
I konei, ka tirohia te huarahi ki 2050. Ki te aromatawai i ngā mahi a te Kāwanatanga me te korenga o ngā tukanga te eke ki tā ngā tahua tuku hauwaro e kī nei, kua akiaki anō i a rātou me te whakahoki kōrero ki te katoa o Aotearoa.
Ki te kore te Kāwanatanga e aro mai ki ngā tahua tuku hauwaro me ngā whakahau ā tēnei pūrongo akiaki, me whakaputa tumatawhānui nei ō rātou urupare. Ahakoa aha, ko tā te Komihana he aromatawai i tā Aotearoa e tutuki nei.
Ko tāna anō, he wero i te Kāwanatanga mēnā rā kāhore hoki i te eke ki tā ngā whakahau whakaheke hauwaro e whai nei. Ki te kore e whakaae ki tā ngā tukanga e whai nei kua wero anō mātou, ā, kua tohea mō te ahunga o te ora te whai.
Ināia tonu nei: a low emissions future for Aotearoa
Aotearoa has committed to reaching net zero emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases by 2050, and to reducing biogenic methane emissions between 24-47% by 2050.
In delivering this advice, He Pou a Rangi the Climate Change Commission (the Commission) has presented ambitious, achievable and equitable paths that Aotearoa can take to meet these targets and contribute to global efforts to address climate change.
Ināia tonu nei is based on the Commission’s independent judgement and impartial assessment of the evidence base. We have developed our advice through extensive research, analysis, modelling, engagement and deliberation. It has been refined based on what New Zealanders told us during a nationwide consultation.
Our analysis shows the transition can begin in earnest. The technology and tools the country needs to get there exist today – Aotearoa does not need to rely on future technologies. The evidence has shown the transition is affordable, brings many other benefits, and opens up new economic opportunities. Our consultation demonstrated that the transition has broad support from people across Aotearoa.
In reaching our conclusions we have balanced the need to be ambitious with what the evidence shows us is achievable now. This reflects the position Aotearoa is in after years of delayed action, and the work the country must do to pass on a thriving, climate-resilient, low emissions Aotearoa to the next generation.
There are three parts to our advice:
While it is the Commission’s role is to provide advice on climate action, it is the Government’s responsibility to determine the specific policies that will form the emissions reduction plan and to set the first three emissions budgets to 2035 for Aotearoa.
In presenting this advice, the Commission has carried out the role laid out for it in the Climate Change Response Act 2002 (the Act). The Act sets the targets and the process. We provide the independent, evidence-based advice on how to reach the targets in the best interests of Aotearoa, and do not come with vested interests.
It is now over to the Government to set emissions budgets and commit to the necessary action in its emissions reduction plan.
Balancing ambitious and achievable action
We have used all the considerations set out in the Act to develop emissions budgets that balance ambition with what is achievable now. We have worked to show how Aotearoa can meet its targets for long-lived greenhouse gases and biogenic methane in a way that is focused on the long term. This recognises that Aotearoa needs to reach the 2050 target and stay there.
We have demonstrated there are multiple ways to achieve our recommended emissions budgets. We have tested their sensitivity using a series of possible paths outlining different rates of technology and behaviour change to 2035. These show the budgets are flexible and resilient to unexpected change.
We want to give the Government confidence to move quickly to make the most of new opportunities that could lead to deeper emissions reductions, and ensure uncertainty about the future does not stall or delay climate action further.
Since our 2021 Draft Advice for Consultation, New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2019 has provided updated estimates of emissions in Aotearoa. Historic emissions have been increased to reflect the latest science. In addition, the Inventory shows that the country’s emissions are still increasing.
These updates mean that meeting the 2050 targets will be harder. Because of this, we have amended our emissions budgets, which are now slightly higher than they were in our 2021 Draft Advice for Consultation because we have a tougher starting point.
We have made a change to the way we present our recommended budgets, that also contributes to budgets being higher than presented in our draft advice. In the table below we present final recommended emissions budgets applying a different rate for combining greenhouse gases into an overall figure.
For our recommended budgets, we have now applied the GWP100 values from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) so that they will be consistent with the way government will report greenhouse gas emissions for the year 2021 onwards. In the rest of our advice we continue to present emissions using the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) GWP100 values. See Chapter 5: Recommended emissions budgets for more information.
Emissions budgets 2022-2025 (AR5) annual average emissions (PDF 133 KB)
Each budget would see progressively deeper emissions reductions. We modelled different paths that could deliver our recommended budgets. Our modelling shows that our recommended budgets could see Aotearoa reducing long-lived greenhouse gas emissions by 63% and biogenic methane emissions by 17% by 2035 (see table below).
Change in emissions compared to 2019 from our modelling AR4 (PDF 72 KB)
We are not on track to meet our targets
Since acknowledging the need to act on climate change, successive governments have adopted a series of different emissions reduction targets. But while the targets changed, they all shared the same short-term focus on planting trees and purchasing offshore mitigation, rather than what was necessary to achieve actual emissions reductions at source.
Instead of putting policies in place to decarbonise the economy and develop low-emissions technologies, practices and behaviours, Aotearoa used forests planted in the 1990s to offset its emissions and meet its targets. The carbon removal benefits of these forests are now coming to an end. Gross emissions have increased by 26% since 1990 and Aotearoa is in a position that is more difficult than it might have been if it had started developing the structures, strategies and plans it needs to create a low emissions system earlier.
Our analysis shows that current government policies do not put Aotearoa on track to meet the Commission’s recommended emissions budgets or the 2050 targets. Achieving the emissions reductions needed to get to 2050 will require our elected officials to move fast to implement a comprehensive plan.
Longer-term direction is needed to drive longer-term action
Short-term thinking has delivered Aotearoa to where we are now in addressing climate change. Transformational change takes time, and people need certainty around the speed and direction of travel to invest in changing how they live, work and operate. There needs to be some hard work done now that will pay dividends later.
We have recommended that the Government of the day seeks cross-party support on emissions budgets, and that they are debated in Parliament. The support and appetite for change of our elected officials needs to be a matter of public record.
Laying the foundations to deliver deeper emissions reductions
To achieve sustained and steady emissions reductions, Aotearoa must build a system that will support and drive these reductions.
Meeting the budgets will require an enabling environment. This means looking at the infrastructure we need to support a low emissions Aotearoa and making some big decisions now. It also means making sure social, political and institutional systems and structures are fit for purpose, because they create the conditions for behaviour and technological change.
The Government can help make sure Aotearoa will have more options for reducing its emissions in the future by putting in place measures to support and encourage research, development and innovation for low-emissions solutions.
We need to be careful that in our haste to achieve more immediate emissions reductions, we do not constrain the ability of the economy to support deeper reductions later. Our recommended budgets suggest smaller reductions to emissions at first that accelerate over time. This reflects the time it will take to fundamentally change the way we do things.
There are uncertainties around how quickly some low-emissions technologies will come into the country, how quickly solutions are developed and tailored for Aotearoa, and how quickly infrastructure is designed and built.
Once we start, it will take time to build momentum and make changes across systems. For example, for electric vehicles (EVs) it will take time to create supply chains for new technologies, ensure supply to bring EVs into the country, lay new electricity lines, install charging infrastructure, and make EVs an affordable and preferable choice.
Setting a sustainable pace for change
A key challenge in preparing this advice has been to find the balance between pushing hard to catch up after years of limited action and moving at a sustainable pace. Aotearoa needs to move at a pace that gives people time to plan and change in a way that does not threaten wellbeing, and further disenfranchise those already disadvantaged.
Moving too slowly will push the burden of addressing climate change onto young people and future generations. Many rangatahi told us that older generations had already left them with costs, and that delayed or weak action would add to those.
However, moving too fast will also impact people. Jobs could be lost unnecessarily and some industries and businesses forced to close even though there may have been solutions if they had more time. This could undermine public support for the transition and delay it even further. A thriving economy and society is vital for ensuring that both current and future generations can make continual and enduring emissions reductions over time.
For our budgets to be ambitious and achievable, they must be met in a way that is fair, equitable and inclusive. This means government must manage potential negative impacts and encourage positive benefits that come with climate action.
The transition to a low-emissions society can be economically affordable and socially acceptable. To achieve this, it must be well-paced, well-planned, well-signalled and co-designed. This means designing it alongside Iwi/Māori as the Crown’s Treaty partner. It also means involving local government, regional economic development agencies, businesses, workers, unions, the disability community and community groups.
However, some groups of society will be more impacted than others. Policy will be needed to
address this.
Employment and jobs will inevitably change as Aotearoa moves towards a low emissions society. Many workers will need to learn new skills to continue practising their profession in a low emissions environment. However, for some it will mean moving into jobs in other industries.
Government must put policies in place to support those who are most disadvantaged and least able to adjust. This will be important for ensuring an equitable and inclusive transition that does not compound existing inequities or historic grievances. Impacted groups must be included from the start in co-designing policy.
How the climate transition will impact different groups of society will depend on the exact design and timing of policies the Government chooses to put in place. In providing advice on the direction of policy, we have focused on building the systems so that this happens in a way that is proactive, well-planned and well-signalled.
We also heard from some that our ambition will cost Aotearoa too much. In response, we have re-examined our assumptions, rerun our models, and conducted further sensitivity analysis. Our main conclusion holds – we are confident in our assessment that Aotearoa can reduce emissions while continuing to grow the economy and improve wellbeing.
We have assessed that the level of GDP could be around 0.5% lower in 2035 and 1.2% lower in 2050 than it would be otherwise. This is consistent with findings overseas. Investing in low emissions technologies and practices now will open up new opportunities and reduce the risk of damaging the country’s reputation due to a lack of credible climate action. However, delaying key actions like the move to EVs and embedding more efficient farm practices could result in the level of GDP in 2050 falling by around 2.3%.
Lasting change – setting the right policy direction
The emissions reduction plan the Government is required to develop in response to this advice needs to provide a comprehensive and cohesive strategy, setting new policies that lay the foundation for the transition.
The plan should make the most of opportunities to reduce emissions immediately and set the country up for accelerated emissions reductions down the track. New Zealanders must be given a predictable and stable direction of travel, with changes signalled well in advance. They need to feel supported to make decisions that will change the way they live, work and operate.
To inform our advice on policy direction, we gathered information about current and likely future costs for various technologies. We tested different paths, gaining insights about the nature and timing of the actions needed to meet the 2050 targets.
We also assessed the climate policy landscape in Aotearoa to identify the gaps, barriers and opportunities. We considered where emission pricing is likely to drive change. For each sector, and across the broader system, we identified where barriers currently deter low-emissions choices, and where strategic investment can help drive deeper change over the long term.
In some areas, such as in relation to the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS), a strong evidence base supports relatively specific policy advice. In other areas, particularly ones that have not been the focus of climate policy in the past, our advice is more focused on outcomes.
We have made recommendations that include strengthening market incentives to drive low-emissions choices and investments. The NZ ETS is an important tool. However, the Government needs to make changes to ensure it is fit for purpose and sends a strong price signal.
International research and experience clearly show that the best approach to reducing emissions is to implement a comprehensive suite of climate policies alongside pricing schemes. We also recommend that the Government’s emissions reduction plan includes action to address barriers and sustain focus on innovation and system transformation.
We must uphold the principles of Te Tiriti o Waitangi/The Treaty of Waitangi. We must also consider impacts on individuals, communities, workers, businesses and families. We need policies to ensure a fair, equitable, and inclusive transition.
Overall, our policy advice (laid out in part two of this report) is intended to provide strategic direction. This is summarised below. It is the Government’s role to consider the detailed design and implementation of policies, guided by this direction.
Key elements of our policy direction (PDF 231 KB)
The changes we will need are widespread
Transitioning to a low-emissions Aotearoa will mean changes to the way energy is produced, the way people travel, the communities they live in and the way land is used. It will involve changes to individual and corporate behaviours, changes to existing processes and ways of operating, and technological innovation.
We have recommended coordinating efforts to address climate change across government. This includes nominating specific Ministers and agencies with accountability for implementing policies and strategies in the emissions reduction plans to ensure there is clear ownership for actions. We also recommend establishing Vote Climate Change as a specific multi-agency appropriation which consolidates existing and future government funding for core climate change mitigation and adaptation activities.
We have also been clear in our recommendations that Te Tiriti o Waitangi/The Treaty of Waitangi must be at the forefront of the transition and core of the work to drive change in Aotearoa. This will ensure an equitable transition for Iwi/Māori, mitigate against compounding historic grievances and set Aotearoa up to achieve success for all its people.
We have heard very clearly that Iwi/Māori expect government to uphold the Crown-Māori partnership. This can be achieved through supporting Māori representation at all levels of decision-making. The Commission has applied the He Ara Waiora framework in developing our advice, which focuses on collaboration with government to improve awareness of how policy can achieve wellbeing outcomes for Iwi/Māori from a te ao Māori perspective.
There are many co-benefits from climate action, particularly to health because of warmer, drier homes, more walking and cycling, and less air pollution. These benefits are significant and immediate and can improve the quality of life for people now and in the future.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is not the only objective, the nature of the transition also matters. Aotearoa needs to transform in a way that maintains and builds wellbeing. This is particularly important to Iwi/Māori.
There are priority actions needed if Aotearoa is going to reach its targets. We have developed paths to test our emissions budgets that include all these actions and tested whether slower than anticipated technology development or behaviour change would put the country off this course.
To create any future path involves making assumptions about what will happen. The transition to a low-emissions Aotearoa may well involve different mixes of technologies than the ones we have modelled, depending on how the relative economics play out.
Our work shows the recommended budgets are resilient and there are multiple ways Aotearoa can achieve them. This provides certainty and makes sure uncertainty about the future does not stall or delay climate action.
Aotearoa in the global climate change effort
During consultation, we received feedback asking how we could conclude that our draft emissions budgets aligned with contributing to the global effort to limit warming to 1.5°C while also stating that the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement did not.
To achieve the NDC, Aotearoa will need some offshore mitigation. This is not about doing less domestically – but about increasing the contribution Aotearoa makes beyond what is possible at home.
Our assessment is that the current NDC is not compatible with contributing to global efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
Aotearoa has committed to reducing net emissions to 30% below 2005 gross emissions levels, over the 2021-2030 period. For the NDC to be compatible with the 1.5°C goal, it would need to reflect emissions reductions much more than 36% below 2005 levels by 2030.
However, science alone cannot determine the share Aotearoa should contribute to those global reductions. Reaching a conclusion on this also depends on social and political judgements about international equity. These should be made by the Government of the day.
Internationally, others have taken more ambitious action on climate change. While emissions from Aotearoa are small on a global scale, they are high per capita. The Commission’s proposed emissions budgets are already ambitious – but the NDC goes further. New Zealanders and their elected officials need to decide how we want to contribute to the global response.
The momentum is growing
Establishing the independent Climate Change Commission was a commitment by Aotearoa to take strong and decisive action to address climate change.
We have considered the views of the approximately 15,000 people and organisations that submitted on our draft advice. Approximately 4,000 more came to events to hear from the Commission and share their vision of a low-emissions Aotearoa.
Throughout this process we have heard support across Aotearoa for decisive action on climate change. While views differ on what action should look like, how much the transition will cost, and what role Aotearoa has in the world, we believe there is growing momentum for change.
The appetite for change was seen with the passing of the Zero Carbon Act. We have seen it over the past 18 months as we have spoken to people across Aotearoa and seen people taking positive action and showing leadership in their sectors. This is evident across business, the NGO and social sector, communities and academic researchers.
Our analysis shows that elected officials need to make changes to legislation and structures to make it easier for people and industry to make low-emissions choices.
From here, the Commission will monitor progress toward 2050. If we assess the Government’s actions and policies fall short of what is needed to achieve the emissions budgets, we will advise them of this and make our advice transparent to the public of Aotearoa.
If the Government chooses not to accept the budgets and the recommendations in this advice, it must publicly explain why not. Either way, the Commission will monitor the country’s progress.
This means we will hold successive Governments to account for action to achieve long-term climate change goals. If we do not think that policies are doing enough, we will be asking for more ambitious action.
Letter from Minister Shaw requesting this advice [PDF – 110 KB]
Terms of Reference for this request [PDF – 161 KB]
- Long-term emissions reduction targets for 2050
- A system of emissions budgets to step Aotearoa towards the 2050 emissions reductions targets
(2050 targets) - National Climate Change Risks Assessments and National Adaptation Plans
- A Climate Change Commission to give independent, expert advice on reducing emissions and adapting to climate change, and to monitor the Government’s progress towards meeting emissions reduction and adaptation goals.
- Pulling together evidence to help us understand the actions that reduce emissions. We have drawn on international evidence and evidence from Aotearoa. We have tested our evidence and assumptions through our technical reference groups and through consultation, and have made amendments in light of this feedback. We have engaged widely with government agencies, NGOs, business, industry groups and other stakeholders and considered the 15,000 submissions we received during consultation.
- Modelled long-term scenarios to 2050 and beyond, and multiple paths to 2035, and used the results to calculate draft emissions budgets. This involved running a series of scenarios, looking at what impact current policy will have on emissions, a range of long-term scenarios to 2050 and beyond, and focusing in more detail on the paths to 2035. We modelled three different paths and tested how sensitive these paths are. This was to determine that our recommended emissions budgets would be achievable as well as ambitious.
- Tested these draft emissions budgets and made adjustments to ensure that any impacts were manageable, that they were sufficiently ambitious, and that they were a sufficient contribution to the global 1.5°C effort. This involved looking at the potential impacts on the economy, different sectors, regions, communities, households, different socioeconomic groups, Iwi/Māori and different generations. Where there were negative impacts, we considered whether these impacts were manageable or whether they could be reduced or changed through changes to government policy. We looked at the positive impacts and co-benefits, such as to health and equitable access to health, and considered how these could be maximised.
- Fair, inclusive and equitable – emissions budgets that can be achieved in a way that is in line with Te Tiriti o Waitangi/The Treaty of Waitangi, that are affordable, manage negative impacts and support those most affected and least able to adjust, maximise broader opportunities to improve health and environmental outcomes, and ensure intergenerational equity.
- Ambitious – emissions budgets that are ambitious and put Aotearoa on track to meet its emissions reduction targets, sustain those targets and contribute to the global effort of limiting warming to within 1.5ºC of pre-industrial levels.
- Achievable – emissions budgets that are technically achievable and economically affordable in light of uncertainty and real-world constraints. This recognises the time it takes people to build supply chains, install new infrastructure, develop markets, and develop skills.
- Replacing fossil fuels with low-emissions electricity is an essential part of the transition and will require major expansion in the electricity system that needs to start now.
- Road transport can be almost completely decarbonised by 2050 by increasing walking, cycling and public transport use, reducing travel by working from home, and by switching to low emissions vehicles.
- Reducing emissions from transport will require a rapid increase in electric vehicle sales so that nearly all light vehicles entering the country are electric by 2035.
- Low- and medium-temperature heat in industry and buildings could be decarbonised by 2050 through a switch away from coal, diesel and fossil gas to electricity and biomass.
- New native forests can be established on steeper, less productive land to provide a long-term carbon sink.
- Exotic production forestry has a role to play until other more enduring sources of carbon removals, such as native forestry, can scale up.
- Meeting the 2050 biogenic methane target is possible through widespread adoption of improved farm management practices, and a combination of waste reduction and diversion from landfills.
- Developing and widely adopting new technologies to reduce livestock methane emissions could enable Aotearoa to exceed the more ambitious end of the 2050 methane target range. Increasing landfill gas capture would also contribute.
- Without new technologies, meeting the more ambitious end of the target range would likely require significantly lower agricultural production from livestock and more land-use change.
- Detail on the demonstration path, including assumptions that underpin that path over the next 15 years.
- Detail on two alternative paths that show the recommended emissions budgets could be met under a different mix of actions. These are ‘less technological change, more behaviour change’ and ‘more technological change, less behaviour change’.
- Sensitivity analysis to test how further uncertainties could impact on the ability to meet the budgets. The analysis gives us confidence that these uncertainties are manageable.
- Impact on GDP: Aotearoa can reduce emissions while continuing to grow the economy. We assess that in 2050, the level of GDP could be around 1.2% lower than if we continued with the policies we have today. Investment in low emissions technologies and processes now will open up new markets and reduce the risk of losing others. Delaying key action including the move to EVs and more efficient farm practices could result in GDP in 2050 being up to 2.3% lower.
- Recognising Iwi/Māori: climate action must recognise Iwi/Māori priorities and not exacerbate existing inequities. The Government will need to ensure that policies consider the different priorities and historic inequities that Iwi/Māori face.
- Future generations: it is important that future generations are not disadvantaged. Aotearoa must strike a balance in how quickly it acts so it does not pass on the cost of climate change. Young people have told us often that this is a concern.
- Benefits to health: there are many co-benefits from climate action, particularly to health because of warmer, drier homes, more walking and cycling, and less air pollution. These benefits are significant and immediate and can improve the quality of life for people now and in the future.
- Cost of living: in general, we do not think New Zealanders’ living costs will increase. Some changes, for example how people travel or heat their homes, will save money. It is essential government considers the needs of groups such as Māori, Pacific peoples, the elderly, people with disabilities, and those on low incomes, as well the most impacted regions and sectors in its planning.
- Employment and skills: there will be fewer jobs in some sectors and more jobs in other sectors. Although there may be some job loss in the next few years, a lot of the change will occur through natural attrition and older workers retiring. One of the biggest challenges is making sure Aotearoa has the workers with the skills it needs to support the transition.
- Rural communities: communities that rely on the food and fibre sector could be impacted by widespread planting of new production forests. Limiting these forests aligns with the Commission’s recommendation to focus on reducing gross emissions (rather than offsetting emissions with trees) and reduce negative impacts on communities.
- We looked at whether the emissions budgets are compatible with the 2050 emissions reduction targets. The country’s carbon dioxide and methane targets were set by the government as our domestic contribution to the 1.5°C global effort.
- We looked at how the emissions reductions for the different greenhouse gases in our work compare to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1.5 °C pathways. We looked at the relative reductions and global trajectories for the different greenhouse gases in the IPCC’s work, drew out the key features, and then applied these in the Aotearoa context.
- Uphold its commitments and obligations to Te Tiriti o Waitangi/The Treaty of Waitangi. To achieve an equitable and enduring transition for Iwi/Māori, we recommend developing and implementing a strategy to ensure emissions reduction plans are firmly rooted in the Treaty principles of partnership, participation, protection, and equity.
- Provide clear, credible, and consistent signals about the direction and pace of change. Cross-party political support is central to this and is particularly important with the emissions budgets because they set the pace of the transition.
- Different organisations and groups need to coordinate and work together. In particular:
- Well-supported local government will be critical to meeting emissions reduction targets
- Government ministries, departments and agencies need to work together in an effective and efficient way to support climate action. They must also be sufficiently resourced. A separate appropriation, or ‘Vote Climate Change’, will support the scale of response required and make sure action is coordinated.
- Effective public participation will make sure people’s voices are heard and everyone can participate in the transition.
- The Government needs to work collaboratively with business and industry, and leverage private sector leadership. The investment decisions and choices that businesses make are critical to the transition.
- Ensure a fair, inclusive and equitable transition. Government must recognise the challenges different groups will face during the transition and make sure plans and support are in place to manage them. As the government develops and implements how it will meet the emissions budgets, it must reflect the te ao Māori values of manaakitanga, tikanga, whanaungatanga and kotahitanga and ground the approach to reducing emissions firmly in these values. This will ensure that people, the environment, and Te Tiriti o Waitangi/The Treaty of Waitangi remain at the centre of the transition.
- Amend and continually improve the NZ ETS to make sure it incentivises reductions in gross emissions.
- Make sure that every major decision the Government makes is consistent with climate goals. Climate change goals should be factored into all government policy and investment decisions. This includes decisions by local governments, as well as by Crown agencies, Crown entities and Crown owned companies.
- Drive low-emissions innovation. The Government can help make sure Aotearoa will have more options for reducing its emissions in the future by putting in place measures to support and encourage research, development and innovation for low-emissions solutions.
- Mobilise public and private finance. Making sure public investments support low emissions outcomes will be important. The Government also needs to help redirect private capital away from emissions intensive activities and towards low emissions investments.
- Make it easier for people to make lower emissions choices. The Government needs make it easier for people to make choices that are better for the climate. It should establish a lead agency and a dedicated fund to support behaviour change.
- Develop a clear plan for how to move Aotearoa towards a more circular economy. This will encourage people to use less and reuse more. This can lower emissions across supply chains. Good data and measurement will be needed to support this.
- Deliver a strategy for a bioeconomy. The bioeconomy can reduce emissions across supply chains by using waste from agriculture, forestry, and households in place of fossil fuels. It will be important to look at the bioeconomy system in an integrated way.
- Change the way cities and towns are planned and designed. The Government needs to do what it can to improve existing communities to support emissions reductions, and make sure that new developments are planned in a way that is compatible with a low emissions future.
- Government develop a comprehensive energy strategy to ensure actions to decarbonise are considered across the whole energy system. This includes setting a system-wide renewable energy target and increased investment in energy efficiency. A strategy would help Aotearoa leverage its extensive renewable electricity to decarbonise areas like transport and industry and reduce fossil fuel use in buildings.
- Government develop this strategy in partnership with Iwi/Māori to ensure there is equitable and proactive partnership with Iwi/Māori and enable opportunities for a Māori-led approach to a thriving, low-emissions, climate-resilient Māori economy.
- Government develop this strategy in collaboration with communities, industries, local government and others to make sure the strategy reflects their experience and knowledge.
- Stopping the installation of new coal boilers and setting a timetable to phase out fossil fuel use in existing boilers.
- Supporting innovation for decarbonising hard-to-abate industries, accounting for sector-specific circumstances and their interdependencies and the need for bespoke solutions requiring research and development.
- Acting in partnership with Iwi/Māori and in collaboration with industrial and manufacturing stakeholders.
- Considered and continued upgrades of minimum Building Code requirements to overcome key barriers that lead to buildings that are not low emissions or as energy efficient and healthy as possible.
- Encouraging construction based on low-emissions designs and practices, because embodied emissions represent a significant proportion of building sector emissions.
- Scaling up energy efficiency assistance to low-income households, so that low-income households can benefit from lower emissions, lower energy costs and healthier buildings.
- Mandating participation in energy performance programmes for existing commercial and public buildings.
- Revise the waste strategy with ambitious goals to reduce waste emissions and increase resource recovery.
- Redesign processes to take out waste at the production stage where possible - for example unnecessary packaging for consumer products and more efficient building processes that use fewer materials.
- Invest to make it easier for New Zealanders to reuse and recycle. There should be an increase in funding for resource recovery infrastructure, research and development. This will also provide support for community groups that run composting and waste education programmes.
- Regulate so those who produce and import products are responsible for minimising their environmental impact. This means expanding product stewardship schemes and exploring other measures, such as right to repair legislation.
- Mandate gas capture at all landfills that accept organic waste. Most of the waste emissions in Aotearoa come from organic waste decaying at landfills. Just 25% of these emissions are from sites that have landfill gas capture.
- Reduce emissions from fluorinated gases through reducing leakage and enabling low-climate impact alternatives.
- Follow through on its commitment to implement a pricing mechanism to incentivise on-farm emissions reductions. The Government must make a decision on this by 2022 so farmers can feel confident to start taking action. The mechanism should consider the unique circumstances of Iwi/Māori collectively-owned land, and the rights and interests of Māori-collectives within the agriculture sector.
- Work with industry to develop advisory services to support farmers to adopt emissions-efficient practices and make the most of opportunities to diversify land use and income. This must include services tailored for Iwi/Māori.
- Improve rural digital connectivity to give farmers access to information and online tools to monitor and improve farm performance and reduce emissions.
- Remove barriers to the deployment of emerging technologies that reduce emissions – such as streamlining food safety legislation.
- Support systems and infrastructure for alternative, lower emissions land uses so that there is more potential to convert land to low emissions uses in future. This includes, for example, infrastructure and supply chains for horticulture.
- Invest in research and development to deliver technology, such as methane vaccines and inhibitors, that would enable bigger emissions reductions in the future. If developed, these technologies could provide more flexibility for farmers in achieving emissions reductions and enable Aotearoa to increase ambition.
- A comprehensive national programme to establish more native forests. Native forests will remove emissions beyond 2050 and provide multiple co-benefits, including cultural, biodiversity, erosion control and water quality benefits.
- Amendments to the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) and other climate policies to manage the amount of forests planted due to climate policies. While our advice recommends planting more exotic production forests, we recommend fewer than the country would see under current NZ ETS settings.
- Effective, integrated pest management to help establish new forests and maintain carbon in existing forests. Pests such as deer and goats can quickly destroy new forests and reduce the carbon stored in existing forests.
- Government clarify the role of permanent exotic forests in our transition and develop and amend policies to deliver against this. Some stakeholders are concerned about permanent exotic forests being established at scale in a way that does not contribute to local economic activity and employment, and that may cause environmental risks.
- Encouraging additional carbon storage in smaller blocks of trees on farms.
- Preventing loss of carbon from drained peatlands and the destruction of wetlands.
- Maintaining and increasing the carbon stock in existing pre-1990 forests through activities like pest and
fire control, and enrichment planting. - Government to work in partnership with Iwi/Māori and local government to develop a strategy to ensure the principles of the Treaty are embedded in subsequent emissions reduction plans.
- Central and local government work in partnership with Iwi/Māori to develop a mechanism to build authentic and enduring partnerships that result in equitable outcomes for Iwi/Māori.
- Government work with Iwi/Māori to develop a strategy, including timebound measures for progress, to advance a Māori-led approach to an equitable transition to a low-emissions society for Iwi/Māori and the Māori economy.
- Genuine partnership with Iwi/Māori to give effect to the principles of the Treaty. This is crucial across all aspects of the transition.
- Proactive planning that is co-designed across Aotearoa. This includes different regions, business, workers and unions that may feel the economic impact. It also includes community, people with disabilities and young people who may face unintended consequences.
- An education system that gives New Zealanders the skills they need to participate in a low emissions economy. This should include strategies for identifying and building the skillsets needed to support sectors key to the move to a low-emissions economy.
- Support for workers that have jobs in high-emissions sectors to retrain or move into new roles in low emissions sectors.
- Robust distributional impact assessment for all climate policy and strategy. This will provide a detailed understanding of how climate policy can impact different groups, positively and negatively. This should be prioritised, proactive and well resourced.
Summary
The Climate Change Commission has consulted with, listened to, and learnt from thousands of people in preparing this advice.
Between January 2020 and January 2021, Commissioners and staff held over 700 meetings, workshops and hui. We met with different sectors, people, and organisations to introduce ourselves and our work, and to hear views on what needs to be considered in Aotearoa in responding to climate change.
During our consultation phase, from 1 February to 28 March 2021, our team held or attended around 200 events across Aotearoa and talked with an estimated 4,000 people. Consultation is comprised of all our engagement activity and the submissions we received.
We held a series of online events, including open Zoom sessions targeted at a general audience. Overall, we had over 3,000 people attend these. We attended events to speak with people from community groups, unions, NGOs, business, central and local government, parliamentary groups, and others.
We met kanohi kitea with Iwi/Māori where possible and engaged online where not. We ran a targeted consultation survey for Iwi/Māori – the 100 Coastie Voices campaign. The focus of this was to identify broad issues that Iwi/Māori would consider to be most significant.
We received more than 15,000 submissions through our website, the 100 Coastie Voices survey, the post and by email.
We heard from rangatahi/young people through our collaboration with The Hive, a programme that uses social media to encourage young people to have their say on public policy.
Much of what we heard in our engagement was echoed in the submissions we received. Central themes around the impact of our advice on New Zealanders, the pace of change, and the need to carefully manage the transition to a low-emissions Aotearoa emerged.
The key themes identified through the 100 Coastie Voices survey aligned with what we heard more broadly through consultation – that the Government must uphold its commitments and obligations to Te Tiriti o Waitangi/The Treaty of Waitangi and the Crown-Māori partnership in its response to climate change.
In this chapter we discuss some of the main themes and insights from our engagement and consultation in more detail, and share how they have shaped our first advice and will continue to shape our future research, analysis, and advice to government.
While the valuable information we received through consultation reflects the views of many New Zealanders, it cannot be taken to represent the views of all New Zealanders. We are conscious that those who chose to respond to our consultation are highly engaged, and may not represent society as a whole. We have not, therefore, emphasised statistical summaries of the submission findings in our final advice. Instead, we have reflected on the themes we heard most consistently, and some of the areas where people had very different perspectives. We have also considered new evidence that has been provided to us through consultation. We have then re-examined the evidence and our judgements in light of what we learnt to form our final advice.
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Chapter 2 Consultation and submissions: what we heard about our draft advice (PDF 121 KB)
Summary
The Climate Change Commission’s (the Commission) role is to provide independent, evidence-based advice on the actions the Government needs to take to address climate change and transition to a low emissions and climate-resilient Aotearoa. The Commission was created by amendments to the Climate Change Response Act 2002 (the Act), passed in 2019.
These amendments created a new framework for the Government’s domestic climate change policies. This framework is designed to support Aotearoa to join global efforts to address climate change and to provide more certainty and stability around climate action.
Key elements of this framework include:
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Chapter 3: The role of the Climate Change Commission (PDF 528 KB)
Summary
Emissions budgets set a limit on the total emissions allowed in Aotearoa for five-year periods out to 2050.
This chapter explains the Commission’s process for determining the levels of these emissions budgets, outlining what we have considered, where we have drawn our evidence from, and how we have used the models we have built.
The Commission’s focus has been on developing advice that is achievable and ambitious and puts Aotearoa on track to meet its targets for long-lived greenhouse gases and biogenic methane in a way that is focused on the long term. We want Aotearoa to reach the 2050 targets and sustain them beyond 2050.
The stages the Commission went through in determining the emissions budgets are:
This chapter also sets out more detail on the key features of the models we have built to help with this analysis.
Changes in our final advice
During consultation, we received feedback from submitters about the need to explain in more detail the approach we took to determine our emissions budgets recommendations. We have written this chapter in response to that feedback.
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Summary
Emissions budgets chart the course for stepping down greenhouse gas emissions over time to meet the emissions reduction targets are set out in the Climate Change Response Act (the Act). The Act requires us to provide advice to the Minister of Climate Change on the level of the first three emissions budgets, setting a path to achieving those targets.
The first emissions budget covers the 4-year period from 2022 – 2025, while the second and third budgets are five years, covering 2026 – 2030 and 2031 – 2035.
Our key decision in recommending the level of these budgets is how quickly Aotearoa should act to deliver emissions reductions. Acting too slowly pushes the burden of addressing climate change on to young people and future generations. Acting too quickly increases the transition cost, for example for infrastructure and asset replacement, and can have unintended consequences for people, society and the economy.
We have been guided by the requirements and considerations under the Act, which are grouped around achieving three key outcomes:
Our recommended emissions budgets are fair, inclusive, equitable, ambitious and achievable. It is possible to meet them with solutions that are available to us today. If new technologies come on the market in the next few years, it may be possible and sensible to overachieve on these budgets.
Changes in our final advice
We re-looked at the evidence around what pace is possible in terms of technological and behavioural change. In some cases, we reduced the ambition or pace of our assumptions, for example the number of used EV available in the early years or efficiency improvements on sheep and beef farms. In other cases, we increased the pace, for example the use of low emissions fuels in heavy freight and the increase in gas capture systems for landfills.
The recommended emissions budgets in our final advice have been updated to reflect the new evidence which we received through consultation, and our updated modelling. The budget numbers also reflect the latest National Greenhouse Gas Inventory published by the Ministry for the Environment (MfE). This update provided estimates of emissions in Aotearoa for 2019, as well as improving estimates for past years. This has lifted the baseline for emissions – meaning Aotearoa has a slightly harder job ahead to meet the
targets set under the Act.
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Summary
There are a number of actions that are critical over the next 15 years to put Aotearoa on track to meeting its 2050 targets. How quickly these actions can be taken up is uncertain and will depend on a number of factors, for example availability of technology.
The Commission has developed multiple scenarios to understand how Aotearoa could meet the 2050 targets under a range of possibilities. This shows what actions are key to meeting the 2050 targets.
We have also looked at what would happen to emissions if Aotearoa continued as it is now and made no changes to policy, and what would happen if Aotearoa followed an approach that focused on reducing net rather than gross emissions. The 2050 targets would not be achieved or sustained under either scenario.
Our scenarios allow us to gain a number of insights on critical actions
For long-lived gases:
For biogenic methane:
Changes in our final advice
We have provided more details of would happen without changing policy, and what would happen if Aotearoa focused on net emissions and not gross.
Figures for greenhouse gas emissions have been updated to reflect the latest national Greenhouse Gas Inventory published in April 2021. This update provided estimates of emissions in 2019, as well as improving estimates of past emissions.
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Summary
The Commission’s analysis shows that while our recommended emissions budgets are ambitious, they are also achievable.
To establish this, we have developed a series of possible paths outlining different rates of technology and behaviour change to 2035 to test the budgets are resilient and ensure uncertainty about the future does not stall or delay climate action. These scenarios follow different paths of technology and behaviour changes to 2035, and include the critical actions identified through our analysis that must be carried out over the next 15 years. These actions are outlined in Chapter 6: Long term scenarios to 2050. We have also
developed detailed assumptions that support those actions.
This chapter provides detail on our analysis to show the emissions budgets can be met. This includes:
It is important that we set budgets that have enough flexibility to respond to unanticipated change. Aotearoa may need to adjust its course as the low emissions transition proceeds. This will mean government, industry, businesses and individuals will be able to adapt as new information, technologies and approaches to lowering emissions are developed.
Changes in our final advice
During consultation, we received feedback from submitters about our models and assumptions. This has been fed into our analysis and changed some of our underlying assumptions. We have presented more paths for achieving the budgets. We have rerun our models and carried out sensitivity analysis.
The key areas where we received feedback from submitters and made changes to our modelling in response to new evidence are detailed sector by sector in the chapter.
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Chapter 7: Demonstrating emissions budgets are achievable (PDF 1.5 MB)
Summary
For our emissions budgets to be ambitious and achievable, they must be met in a way that is fair, equitable and inclusive. This means government must manage potential negative impacts and encourage positive benefits that come with climate action. These will vary across regions, parts of society and the economy, depending on the path the Government chooses and the policies it puts in place.
This chapter outlines the impacts and co-benefits considered when setting the emissions budgets. These include:
Changes in our final advice
We have added more detail on health benefits, the impacts on jobs, and the costs of inaction. We have updated our modelling results and included the results of new sensitivity analysis in our impacts analysis.
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Chapter 8: Demonstrating emissions budgets can be fair, inclusive and equitable (PDF 1.3 MB)
Summary
Limiting warming requires a global effort with each country playing its part by meeting its international climate change commitments to reduce emissions. Global ambition is increasing with many of the world’s largest emitters committing to strengthened climate targets.
The domestic emissions reduction targets for Aotearoa are set at a level the Government has judged to be in line with contributing to global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. This is a requirement under the Climate Change Response Act (the Act). To make sure the Climate Change Commission’s (the Commission’s) budgets are compatible with this, we have carried out a detailed assessment.
Our assessment of how the recommended budgets contribute to the global 1.5°C effort
We have considered two components when assessing whether our emissions budgets are compatible with the global 1.5°C effort.
The Commission’s analysis shows our recommended emissions budgets put Aotearoa on track to reach net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2038. This is ahead of the range in the IPCC pathways of 2045-2055. The recommended budgets also put us on track to reach net zero for all long-lived greenhouse gases before 2050.
The reductions in agricultural methane for our emissions budgets put Aotearoa just outside the IPCC’s interquartile range for 2030. However, by 2050 we consider it is likely Aotearoa will be within the interquartile range.
The Act sets targets for reductions in total biogenic methane, this includes biogenic methane emissions from waste as well as agriculture. Our analysis shows Aotearoa has an opportunity to significantly reduce emissions from waste. This would lead to a reduction of total biogenic methane between 2010 and 2030 of 12%, which is within the IPCC range.
Our recommended budgets see reductions in nitrous oxide between 2010 and 2030 of 3%, which is inside the IPCC’s interquartile range. This path also puts nitrous oxide reductions on track to reach the lower emissions end of the IPCC interquartile range by 2050.
Changes in our final advice
This is a new chapter in our final advice. It answers questions that were raised during consultation about the contribution of Aotearoa to the global 1.5°C effort.
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Chapter 9: Contributing to limiting warming to 1.5°C (PDF 557 KB)
Summary
As part of its role, the Commission has a responsibility to monitor progress towards meeting the emissions budgets and the 2050 target. To do this, we have developed and recommended accounting rules.
Our priority is to ensure accuracy and integrity in accounting and reporting. We want to make sure Aotearoa is responsible for its emissions and can track genuine gains.
We have made several choices to achieve this. This chapter outlines these choices and explains how the Commission has developed its rules for measuring progress. These rules have also been used in developing our recommended emissions budgets.
Greenhouse gas accounting – consumption or production based?
One of the most fundamental choices in greenhouse gas accounting is whether to calculate emissions on a production or a consumption basis. We have chosen production-based accounting, using the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory, because the Inventory provides the most comprehensive and robust emissions estimates for Aotearoa.
We have heard feedback that we should be using consumption-based accounting. This has been considered but consumption-based emissions estimates do not cover important emissions sources and sinks such as forests and are just being developed for Aotearoa. We recognise the usefulness of applying a consumption lens to think about emissions so have recommended that consumption-based emissions estimates continue to be prepared and continually improved, as a complement to the GHG Inventory.
Accounting for land emissions
It is important to adopt a robust approach for accounting for land-based emissions, because of forests’ role as a sink and source of emissions in Aotearoa. There are two frameworks to choose from – an activity-based or a land-based approach.
The Commission has recommended a modified activity-based approach, including averaging for post-1989 forests. This focuses on the impact people's decisions have on emissions now and into the future, rather than rewarding or penalising decisions made in the past. It is the same as the approach that will be used in the first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for Aotearoa.
We have a large area of forests that produce timber in Aotearoa, which are cut down at regular intervals. Averaging accounting provides steady and predictable emissions estimates for these forests that reflect their enduring, long-term effect on carbon stocks, rather than temporary fluctuations.
Future work to improve accounting for land emissions
We recommend that the Government improve accounting in the future. This should include developing methods to extend accounting to carbon emissions and removals by peat soils, small lots of trees and vegetation; sound and transparent methods to account for voluntary mitigation and offsetting claims; and improving accounting for harvested wood products.
Changes in our final advice
We have strengthened our advice on further work the Government should do to improve accounting. We heard strong support for this from a range of submitters.
Based on interest from stakeholders, we have also included more explanation of how we have considered emissions from international transport, and outlined the Commission’s view of how method updates to the GHG Inventory should be addressed when assessing progress towards meeting emissions budgets.
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Chapter 10: Rules for measuring progress towards emissions budgets and 2050 targets (PDF 190 KB)
Summary
Meeting emissions budgets and sustaining emissions reductions over the long term will require fundamental changes to the economy and society. Aotearoa will look different in 2050 than it does today.
Transitioning to a low-emissions Aotearoa will mean changes to the way energy is produced, the way people travel, the communities people live in, and the way land is used. It will involve changes to individual and corporate behaviour, changes to existing processes and ways of operating, as well as technological innovation.
The shift away from high emitting technologies, practices and behaviour will not happen all at once, but over the course of the coming decades.
In developing our advice on policy direction, we have drawn on international research showing that the best approach is to implement a comprehensive suite of climate policies.
Policies must target a range of different problems and can reduce emissions in a way that supports other goals. The transition to low emissions presents opportunities to contribute to health, freshwater quality, biodiversity, reducing existing inequities, and addressing historic grievances.
At the same time, policies that push against the goal of reducing emissions should be amended or removed.
Reducing emissions is not the only objective. The nature of the transition also matters. Aotearoa needs to transform in a way that maintains and builds well being, and supports natural, social, and human capital. The transition also needs to endure over time, well beyond 2050.
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Chapter 11: Approach to developing advice on policy direction (PDF 543 KB)
Summary
To reach its climate targets Aotearoa needs to create an environment where long-lasting change is possible.
This means making it easy for people and organisations to make choices and decisions that support the transition. The choices and decisions that people, households, businesses, industries, and local government make will result in lasting change. Everyone has a role in getting Aotearoa to net zero.
The Government’s main role is to create conditions where addressing climate change is achievable, affordable, and supported across Aotearoa.
This chapter outlines areas where the Government should take action to support an enabling environment for lasting change:
Changes in our final advice
This is a new chapter that includes some content that was elsewhere in our 2021 Draft Advice for Consultation. We have taken on feedback through consultation and adjusted the recommendations, as well as placing more emphasis on the importance of laying the groundwork for the transition.
We have distinguished between the need for cross-party support for the emissions budgets and for the Government’s emissions reduction plans. This recognises that support for the emissions budgets is more critical. It also recognises that views on the best policies and approaches to meeting emissions budgets are likely to be party-specific, making cross-party consensus more difficult to achieve.
We strengthened our recommendation for climate considerations to be included in all government decision making, and emphasised the need for adequate resourcing.
We have emphasised the need for collaboration and partnership with business. This recognises how crucial these groups are in the transition.
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Chapter 12: Policy direction to create an enabling environment for change (PDF 543 KB)
He pūrongo a Ināia tonu nei - akahekea E Aotearoa Te Hauwaro (PDF 148 KB)
Summary
In this chapter we give advice on policy direction that cuts across different sectors, which is important for enabling change at a systems level.
Changes in our final advice
We have brought our bioeconomy, circular economy and urban form recommendations into this chapter in response to public feedback that they are all much broader than any one sector.
We did not previously have an over-arching recommendation on research and development, so we have added advice on this after coming through in submissions as an important theme.
We have also given more prominence to finance in our advice. The draft advice focused on climate-related disclosures and aligning investments for climate outcomes. This has been broadened to emphasise the importance of mobilising public and private capital towards investments that are net-zero compatible.
We have strengthened our advice on behaviour change and been more specific in our recommendation that Government should establish a dedicated fund and nominate a lead agency.
We have broadened the recommendations in our draft advice on ensuring emissions are factored into every policy and investment decision that government makes, to also include Crown agencies, Crown entities and Crown-owned companies.
We have amended the wording in the NZ ETS recommendation to improve clarity.
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Chapter 13: Policy direction that cuts across sectors (PDF 168 KB)
Summary
Transport makes up almost 33% of total long-lived gas emissions in Aotearoa. Action to reduce these is critical if Aotearoa is going to reach its climate targets.
There is an opportunity to decarbonise transport by 2050. This can be achieved by investing in the right infrastructure and systems, encouraging changes to behaviour, and adopting technologies that are available now and improving fast.
We have recommended three areas for the Government to focus on to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transport. They are:
Reducing the reliance on cars (or light vehicles) and supporting people to walk, cycle and use public transport. Government needs to support this change with clear targets, plans to meet those targets, and substantial increases to funding. Local government plays an important role in changing how people travel, and it needs more support from central government to do the job well. This includes enabling them through legislation, removing regulatory barriers, and providing increased and targeted funding.
Rapidly adopting electric vehicles (EVs). Ambitious policies are needed to address supply and cost constraints, and bring more EVs into the country. Aotearoa should import more efficient vehicles until EVs are widely available and affordable.
Beginning work now to decarbonise heavy transport and freight. Government should develop a national low-emissions freight strategy, that includes moving more freight by rail and sea. It should also encourage the production and use of low emissions fuels, such as biofuels, electricity, and green hydrogen.
Changes in our final advice
Our final advice is more ambitious, compared to our 2021 Draft Advice for Consultation, around shifting the way New Zealanders travel and supporting better infrastructure for walking and cycling. It places less emphasis on private vehicle use, although accelerating EV uptake is still key to achieving our emissions budgets.
We have moved the section on urban form to the multi-sector chapter, and have conducted further analysis into this area to highlight its system-level importance.
More detail on the benefits of reducing emissions from transport, including health and environmental benefits, have been added.
We heard through consultation that the role of alternative fuels, such as hydrogen for heavy transport, was underplayed in our 2021 Draft Advice for Consultation. In response, we have been more fuel-neutral in our discussion of low-carbon fuel options.
We have also taken a broader and more ambitious approach to heavy transport and freight, which considers efficiency and shifting to lower-emissions alternatives such as shipping and rail, rather than solely focusing on increasing low-carbon fuels.
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Summary
Emissions from energy, industry and buildings contribute around 44% of long-lived gases in Aotearoa. To reduce these emissions, Aotearoa must decarbonise how it produces and uses energy. It needs to transform to an energy system that is low emissions, affordable and secure.
Our recommendations to achieve this have been split under the below headings:
Energy
Energy production, supply and use, including electricity, is a large complex system relied on by people, business and industry across Aotearoa. Because of this, actions taken to lower emissions from how energy is used and produced must be considered and coordinated across public and private sectors. We recommend that:
The transition must deliver low-emissions electricity that is affordable, accessible and reliable, and which enables the decarbonisation of process heat and transport.
We have made a series of recommendations aimed at ensuring that we have an electricity sector that is ready to meet future needs.
Industry
There are two main ways in which industry creates greenhouse gases. One is from using energy to create heat to process products, for example turning milk into milk powder (process heat). The second is using energy to drive chemical reactions for products, for example steel.
The opportunity to reduce emissions across both is through ending the use of fossil fuels. We have recommended a plan for actions to decarbonise the industrial sector. This should include:
Buildings
Aotearoa needs low emissions, energy-efficient, warm, healthy homes and workplaces. Buildings should be constructed using designs and products that lower emissions and improve New Zealanders’ health and wellbeing.
There must be standards and legislation to support this. Our advice recommends:
Changes in our final advice
The Commission has changed the name of this chapter and associated work programme from ‘Heat, Industry and Power’ to ‘Energy, Industry and Buildings’. This gives a clearer picture of how energy is produced and used in Aotearoa and where the opportunities to reduce emissions are.
We have emphasised the need for a cohesive energy strategy. We heard concern that decisions on energy are being made in silos and without a complete system view. Energy is used and produced in Aotearoa every day and plays a crucial role in how people live, work and learn.
We have also suggested more work is needed to manage the diminishing role of fossil gas across the energy system, and to develop low emissions gases like biogas and green hydrogen. To better distinguish gases with high emissions from their low emissions alternatives, we have renamed natural gas to be fossil gas.
We did further analysis and refined our assumptions around some of the larger industrial facilities. We call for a plan to decarbonise the industrial sector and have made clearer the need to identify and decarbonise industry that is strategically important to the Aotearoa economy.
We further emphasised the importance of low-emissions buildings, both in terms of energy efficiency and embodied emissions.
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Chapter 15: Policy direction for energy, industry and buildings (PDF 164 KB)
Summary
Waste accounts for 9% of biogenic methane emissions in Aotearoa. New Zealanders have told us they want to see better waste management to reduce biogenic methane emissions.
Aotearoa has one of the highest rates of waste generated per person in the OECD and low recovery rates of waste, such as to recycling, anaerobic digestion (energy recovery) or composting.
Aotearoa can learn from what has been tried and tested overseas. This means putting the waste hierarchy of reducing, reusing and recycling waste at the centre of decision making. Any landfills that accept the remaining organic waste should capture the resulting methane emissions.
We have made the following recommendations to reduce both biogenic methane and embodied emissions from waste:
Changes in our final advice
We have increased our ambition in waste, setting a target to decrease biogenic waste methane emissions by at least 40% by 2035, up from the 15% emissions reduction target in our 2021 Advice Draft for Consultation. Some of this is because of updates to New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory (released in April 2021), but we also recommend more action in this sector based on what we heard through consultation and further analysis.
We have also moved our circular economy recommendations from the waste section to the multisector strategy section. This was a more appropriate reflection of what we heard from submitters about the potential for emissions reductions through a more circular economy extending beyond waste.
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Chapter 16: Policy direction for waste and fluorinated gases (PDF 90 KB)
Summary
Aotearoa has been an agricultural world leader over recent decades, putting it in a strong position to continually improve and contribute to meeting the 2050 targets.
Our analysis shows that even without new technologies, Aotearoa can reduce agricultural emissions through efficiencies on farms, and by switching some pastoral land to forestry and horticulture. Investing in research and development now could provide more flexibility, and potentially make it possible to meet the more ambitious end of the 2050 biogenic methane target.
Farmers have already made progress in reducing emissions, but further changes can lower emissions on farm while maintaining, or even improving, productivity. This includes reducing animal numbers and using better animal, pasture and feed management. Policy support is needed to make this happen.
We recommend that the Government:
Changes in our final advice
During consultation we heard from some that we weren’t ambitious enough in agriculture, while others said we were being too optimistic in the assumptions about the potential for emissions reductions. We have adjusted our assumptions about the emissions that can be reduced through on-farm improvements. We also tested paths with more land-use change to horticulture.
We have been clearer on our role over the next year to assess the progress of He Waka Eka Noa and to assess the readiness of the sector for pricing emissions.
We reviewed the limited evidence available on the potential emissions reductions impacts of phasing out synthetic nitrogen fertiliser on dairy farms. We will be providing advice related to agricultural emissions pricing in 2022, and will be better able to assess these options, and how they might work alongside a pricing mechanism, at that time.
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Summary
In Aotearoa, forests are the only option available now for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at scale.
Our advice prioritises stopping emissions at source. This means strategically managing forests to provide a long-term carbon sink for Aotearoa, rather than using them as a primary tool to meet our 2050 emissions reduction targets (2050 targets).
To achieve this, we recommend:
Changes in our final advice
Our final advice is more explicit about changing the NZ ETS to manage afforestation. This is critical to make sure that gross emissions in Aotearoa reduce.
We heard that Māori-collectives face a range of constraints that limit their scope to manage their whenua in alignment with their rangatiratanga and collective aspirations. We now have a recommendation for the Government to consider ways to give more flexibility for Māori-collectives with pre-1990 forest on their whenua.
We received submissions about the negative impacts of large-scale permanent exotic forests, particularly those planted solely for carbon, on rural communities and the wood processing industry and about the higher potential of alternative exotic species for carbon sequestration.
We heard through consultation that forests cannot be established with the current prevalence of pests, so we recommend effective, integrated pest management.
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Chapter 18: Policy direction for forests and other carbon stocks (PDF 113 KB)
Summary
This chapter responds to the significant feedback we received about the need to see Iwi/Māori views reflected in our advice.
We heard clearly that the Government must uphold its commitments and obligations under Te Tiriti o Waitangi/The Treaty of Waitangi and the Crown-Māori partnership in its response to climate change. Māori and non-Māori submitters told us that emissions reduction plans must be firmly rooted in the principles of partnership, participation, protection, and equity.
Achieving an equitable transition for Iwi/Māori
The transition to a low-emissions society in Aotearoa must be equitable for tangata whenua and all New Zealanders. To achieve this, the impacts of the transition on Iwi/Māori need to be understood from a te ao Māori view.
The Commission has looked closely at the direction of policy needed to ensure government can support proactive partnership with Iwi/Māori and advance a Māori-led approach to an equitable transition for Iwi/ Māori. Part of this is providing for the recognition of Iwi/Māori perspectives, including recognising tikanga and mātauranga Māori alongside Western science.
Central and local government must ensure emissions reduction plans comply with the Treaty and do not compound historic grievances and further disadvantage Iwi/Māori. Climate action that does not support Iwi/Māori to exercise rangatiratanga, kaitiakitanga and mana motuhake over their whenua, and other cultural assets will exacerbate inequity for Iwi/Māori.
Iwi/Māori expressed their concern that if existing barriers inhibiting Māori economic development and cultural vitality are not addressed, climate action will further impact the social and cultural wellbeing of Iwi/Māori.
In working towards equitable partnerships with Iwi/Māori, it is important that government understands te ao Māori values and perspectives regarding taonga tuku iho and whenua, including land-use decision-making. A stronger emphasis on investment into local and regional low-emissions economic development will better prepare Iwi/Māori communities to respond to local and regional environmental and economic shocks caused by the effects of climate change.
This chapter highlights that Iwi/Māori co-decision making is needed across all levels of government along with an enabling policy direction that advances a Māori-led approach to ensure an equitable transition.
We make the following recommendations:
Changes in our final advice
This is an additional chapter to our 2021 Draft Advice for Consultation in response to the significant feedback we received that Iwi/Māori need to be visible in the Advice report, and about upholding Te Tiriti o Waitangi/The Treaty of Waitangi.
This chapter provides context to support Chapter 11 - Approach to developing advice on policy direction, and Chapter 12: Policy direction to create an enabling environment for change to ensure our advice to Government reflects what we have heard to support an equitable transition for Iwi/Māori.
A supplementary report by BERL (Business and Economic Research Limited) provided additional data and insights to support our analysis on impacts for Iwi/Māori. The full report Emissions Reduction Plan – Impact on the Māori Economy can be accessed below.
Emissions Reduction Plan – Impact on the Māori Economy (PDF 615 KB)
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Chapter 19: Policy direction for an equitable transition for Iwi/Māori (PDF 107 KB)
Chapter 19: Te ahunga o ngā tukanga e eke ai te whakawhiti a ngā iwi Māori ki te ora (PDF 146 KB)
Summary
A fair, inclusive and equitable transition is one that will endure. This means approaching the transition in a way that is considered and includes people in the process.
To do this, the Government needs to plan, involve other people in its planning, and support others to make decisions that guide their own transitions. We have heard very clearly that Iwi/Māori want real partnership.
Business, industry, local government, NGOs and community are ready to co-design emissions reductions plans to reflect their experience and needs.
This chapter recommends the Government develop an equitable transitions strategy that makes sure impacts on people are thought about during planning, programme development and policy development, not after. We have also asked the Government to outline how it intends to prioritise and fund the strategy.
This should enable:
Changes in our final advice
We have suggested transition planning be used more widely, particularly for different industries. This recognises how industry and the regional economy are connected. More details on specifics are in each sector chapter, where we have pointed out some key strategic decisions that will need to be made by business and industry.
We have strengthened our advice to reflect feedback on the importance of education and skills in the transition. We had a lot of feedback saying we needed to recommend specific policies to address impacts on people. We have been clearer that the Commission’s role is to set the direction of policy, not draft policies.
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Chapter 20: Policy direction for a fair, inclusive and equitable transition (PDF 95 KB)
Chapter 21 and 22 summaries
Chapters 21 and 22 have been summarised jointly.
The global 1.5°C effort and Nationally Determined Contribution for Aotearoa and Factors relevant to setting the level of the Nationally Determined Contribution
The Minister of Climate Change asked us to review the current Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for Aotearoa (2021-2030). This was to determine whether the current NDC is compatible with contributing to global efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Our assessment is that the current NDC is not compatible with contributing to global efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
Aotearoa has committed to reducing net emissions to 30% below 2005 gross emissions levels, over the 2021-2030 period.
For the NDC to be compatible with the 1.5°C goal, it would need to reflect emissions reductions much more than 36% below 2005 levels by 2030.
The Climate Change Commission has not provided a specific recommendation on what the NDC should be. This is a political and ethical issue, which will require elected representatives to make decisions on the importance of factors that contribute to the 1.5°C goal. Factors include the cost Aotearoa is willing to bear, social and economic impacts, international expectations and reputation, relative comfort with climate risk, and the balance of how much we do at home versus how much we do internationally.
There is a big gap between what we can do domestically and what we must do to meet our international commitment with the NDC. This is because to meet previous climate change targets, Aotearoa has relied on offsetting through forestry and offshore carbon credits, rather than reducing total emissions. This gap will need to be bridged with offshore mitigation.
Changes in our final advice
Our assessment of the NDC has not changed, however, we have added more detail and updated some numbers.
We have provided more explanation around how we account for forests, how we have used modelling from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, and why the current NDC is hard to meet domestically, including historical context around the use of forest offsets in Aotearoa.
In updating the numbers, we have reflected the latest Ministry for the Environment (MfE) New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory (published in April 2021) in our assessment of how much the current NDC allows Aotearoa to emit, and our assessment of pathways that would be compatible with 1.5°C. We have also updated our analysis to treat fluorinated greenhouse gases the same as other greenhouse gases.
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Chapter 21: The global 1.5°C effort and Nationally Determined Contribution for Aotearoa (PDF 173 KB)
Chapters 21 and 22 have been summarised jointly. See section for Chapter 21 above for summary.
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Summary
The Minister of Climate Change asked us to give advice on the eventual reductions in biogenic methane emissions that might be needed for Aotearoa to contribute to limiting the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (the global 1.5°C effort).
We are not changing any existing targets – the Climate Change Response Act fixes the current targets which require biogenic methane emissions to reduce by 10% below 2017 levels by 2030 and by 24-47% by 2050. However, our finding will inform future emissions budgets, and we will review the targets in 2024.
We found that looking out to 2100, Aotearoa could be called on to reduce biogenic methane emissions further, to 49-60% below 2017 levels.
Most biogenic methane emissions (91%) in Aotearoa are from agriculture. These emissions are created through fermentation in the stomachs of ruminant animals such as cows and sheep.
Aotearoa can reach the 10% target by 2030 and the 24-47% target by 2050 without using new technology such as methane vaccines or inhibitors in agriculture. It is also likely these technologies will become available. This would increase the speed and efficiency of reducing biogenic methane emissions.
In this chapter we have looked at the emissions reductions needed globally, what Aotearoa might be able to achieve and how agriculture in Aotearoa might fit into a future global economy.
We have also looked at what additional contributions Aotearoa may need to make to global reductions, given the scale of agriculture and the relative expertise and wealth in our country. The contribution for Aotearoa will probably be in the mid-upper quartile of the proportional emissions reductions needed to achieve the the global 1.5°C effort.
Changes in our final advice
This section is largely unchanged from our 2021 Draft Advice for Consultation.
Relatively few people commented in submissions on the long-term reductions in biogenic methane. Those that did gave a range of different perspectives, but did not provide relevant new evidence.
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Chapter 23: Eventual reductions in biogenic methane (PDF 23 KB)