Advice report
Ināia tonu nei: a low emissions future for Aotearoa
Advice to the New Zealand Government on its first three emissions budgets and direction for its emissions reduction plan 2022 – 2025.
31 May 2021
Supporting Evidence report
The 2021 Supporting Evidence report accompanied Ināia tonu nei. It provides the detailed evidence we drew on to support our recommendations and advice to the Government.
Each drop-down below includes a summary of the chapter and a link to download it in full.
Glossaries to help with key terms used within the chapters are available:
Glossary of terms [PDF – 69 KB]
Technical glossary [PDF – 81 KB]
This document captures the feedback we heard about chapters in Part 1 of our Supporting Evidence. It summarises the key themes we heard during consultation, errors and misrepresentations, new evidence and analysis, and changes we made to each chapter.
Climate change is already happening, and past emissions have locked in further change. By signing up to the Paris Agreement, the world has committed to take action on climate change. Nations are responsible for determining how they will contribute to global efforts to limit warming to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5˚C above pre-industrial levels and reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.
Aotearoa has set itself the goal in the Climate Change Response Act 2002 (CCRA) of contributing to efforts to limit temperature increases to 1.5˚C above pre-industrial levels.
This chapter explores the science on climate change and sets out why urgent action is needed, looking at what effect our current behaviour has and what is at stake.
It examines the forces affecting the global temperature, the role of different greenhouse gases and the possible emissions reduction pathways to meeting the 1.5˚C limit.
Although countries worldwide have signed up to the Paris Agreement, current global efforts are not going far enough to bring about the emissions reductions needed. Reducing global emissions needs to be a collaborative effort and, encouragingly, we are seeing an increasing number of countries committing to net zero targets.
This chapter looks at how our targets compare with those of other countries, looking at the world's biggest emitters and our key trading partners, and how our past emissions trends compare to other developed countries.
‘Rules for measuring progress’ refers to the system for monitoring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over time to understand whether Aotearoa is on track to achieve emissions budgets and the 2050 target.
This chapter outlines the Climate Change Commission’s role, the objectives and principles used to guide its advice on accounting choices and analysis of a range of accounting matters relevant for emissions budgets. These issues include production versus consumption-based accounting, land emissions accounting, voluntary offsetting and carbon neutrality and detailed legislative requirements related to the scope and presentation of emissions budgets.
This document captures the feedback we heard about chapters in Part 2 of our Supporting Evidence. It summarises the key themes we heard during consultation, errors and misrepresentations, new evidence and analysis, and changes we made to each chapter.
Transitioning to a thriving, climate-resilient and low-emissions Aotearoa would create a number of opportunities and challenges across all sectors and communities. This means our analysis has considered a wide range of factors, including existing technology and anticipated technological developments, the costs and benefits of adopting new technology and the impacts on households, employment and regions.
This chapter introduces Part 2 of the 2021 Supporting Evidence, the approach we took to analysing the technologies and practices that could be deployed across sectors,and what the actions and limitations might be.
Chapter 4: Reducing emissions - opportunities and challenges across sectors (PDF 325 KB)
Energy is a necessity in the modern world as a critical input into every good and service in our economy. Energy used in Aotearoa comes from a range of sources including bioenergy, petroleum, coal, natural gas, wind, solar, hydro and geothermal. Some of these energy sources can in turn be used to produce other forms of energy like hydrogen or electricity.
Different forms of energy production and use have different emissions associated with them. Different forms of energy, such as heat and electricity, enable industries to produce goods and materials. Industrial activities are many and varied. All industries use energy, and some have process emissions as well.
This section outlines the opportunities and some of the key challenges for reducing emissions in energy and industry.
Chapter 5: Reducing emissions from energy and industry (PDF 548 KB)
Emissions from transport, buildings and urban form currently contribute to total emissions from Aotearoa in a range of ways.
Transport has been the most rapidly growing source of emissions for Aotearoa, with road transport emissions accounting for 90% of all transport emissions. Low-density residential developments are associated with higher emissions, while the way buildings are built and operated determines the emissions they produce. The interaction between where we live, learn and earn, and how we move between these places, also impacts on our emissions.
This section outlines the opportunities and some of the key challenges for reducing emissions in transport, buildings and urban form.
Chapter 6: Reducing emissions from transport, buildings and urban form (PDF 1.2 MB)
Agriculture contributes significantly to the Aotearoa economy, communities and culture. Farming livestock makes up the majority of agricultural emissions, with smaller contributions from horticulture and cropping. Agriculture emits the majority of biogenic methane emissions in Aotearoa and also makes a significant contribution to long-lived gas emissions.
This chapter explores the sources of livestock emissions and opportunities for reducing emissions, including farm management and new technologies, along with the opportunities and challenges for each option. Emissions from farm vehicles and machinery are covered in Chapter 5: Reducing emission from energy and industry and Chapter 6: Reducing emissions from transport, buildings and urban form.
The majority of waste emissions are from biogenic methane, with smaller amounts of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide also being generated from composting, incineration and wastewater treatment. There are practices and technologies available to reduce the amount of waste and associated emissions.
While only emissions at the final destination point of waste are considered in New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory, there are also potential emissions reduction opportunities in other sectors that may result from tackling waste.
This chapter explores the sources of emissions from the waste sector and opportunities to reduce them – including waste avoidance, waste recovery, lower-emissions landfills and low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants. Refrigerants are covered in this chapter, as resource recovery mechanisms, such as product stewardship, apply to both waste and refrigerants.
Getting to net zero emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases for Aotearoa will require removals of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This could mean establishing more forests or using carbon capture and storage. Whichever measure we decide to take, we must explore options for removing carbon from our atmosphere and the steps we need to take to get there.
This chapter outlines those options in detail, discussing opportunities and challenges and quantifying them when possible.
Emissions reduction options and associated impacts for Iwi and Māori will vary across the motu. Supporting the Crown to be a good Treaty partner and promoting intergenerationally equitable outcomes for Iwi/Māori requires an understanding of the issues and opportunities through a te ao Māori lens, from the perspectives of tangata whenua.
This chapter draws on He Ara Waiora –A Pathway towards Wellbeing and insights gathered though engagement with Māori to explore potential impacts for Iwi/Māori of different emissions reduction options.
We saw many examples where Iwi/Māori demonstrate climate positive leadership in their decision making by exercising rangatiratanga and kaitiakitanga and identify key considerations that Aotearoa should factor into climate positive decisions and actions.
- the compatibility of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) with contributing to the global effort to limit the increase in global average temperature to 1.5ᵒC above pre-industrial levels (the global 1.5°C effort); and
- what long-term reductions of biogenic methane emissions the country might be required to make as part of that effort.
This document captures the feedback we heard about chapters in Part 3 of our Supporting Evidence. It summarises the key themes we heard during consultation, errors and misrepresentations, new evidence and analysis, and changes we made to each chapter.
This chapter provides a glimpse of what future emissions in Aotearoa could look like if we keep progressing as we are now –with no policy changes or new regulations. It does this through the Current Policy Reference case, which provides the platform that allows us to test and adjust our thinking to create alternate scenarios which form the basis of our advice.
We dive deep into each sector and explore how the future might play out if policies continue as they are. This chapter also introduces our ENZ modelling tool and discusses the possible impacts of COVID-19 on our future emissions.
Developing different scenarios allows us to see what the future of Aotearoa could look like. These scenarios are based on our modelling and analysis and help us determine the course of action we should embark on.
This chapter outlines four scenarios: Headwinds, Further Technology Change, Further Behaviour Change, and Tailwinds.
These scenarios explore the uncertainty around how technologies and social factors could develop and present different ways of achieving our 2050 emissions reductions target.
Chapter 12: Long-term scenarios to meet the 2050 target (PDF 2.4 MB)
We have been asked two additional questions about
In this chapter we show our work on how we have used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1.5°C pathways in our assessment of the NDC.
We also discuss the long-term global and local trends that will influence what contribution reductions of biogenic methane might need to make as part of the global 1.5°C effort in the future.
This document captures the feedback we heard about chapters in Part 4 of our Supporting Evidence. It summarises the key themes we heard during consultation, errors and misrepresentations, new evidence and analysis, and changes we made to each chapter.
The climate change transition for Aotearoa would bring opportunities, benefits, challenges and costs. The way we transition will have both positive and negative impacts on different groups of society, regions, sectors of the economy and generations.
Aotearoa can transition in a way that considers the wellbeing of people, the land and the environment. This Part does not attempt to ‘sum up’ the positive and negative impacts of our transition, but instead addresses each potential impact in turn –looking at where impacts could be compounded and how they could be managed.
Chapter 14: Introduction: What could this mean for New Zealanders (PDF 206 KB)
The impact of emissions reductions on the country’s economy will depend on the pace with which Aotearoa acts, the costs of reducing emissions and global action. Aotearoa needs strong, accelerated and predictable action so that businesses have predictability about where the country is headed, and to put us on a track where future generations inherit a thriving, climate-resilient and low-emissions economy.
This chapter looks at impacts on the economy; energy, food and fibre systems; businesses and workers; and the challenges and opportunities they would face from transitioning to a thriving, climate-resilient and low-emissions Aotearoa.
This chapter looks at what impacts the climate transition may have on households and communities in Aotearoa, specifically the health co-benefits, changes to household bills, access to transport and the impacts of land-use changes.
Our modelling suggests that most households would not see an increase in electricity bills and petrol costs over the course of the first three emissions budgets. Energy efficient electric appliances, improvements in fuel efficiency, a shift to electric vehicles (EVs)and more public transport, and walking and cycling will play an important role in meeting our proposed emissions budgets, while also saving people money.
Many of the policies to reduce emissions will also benefit health and wellbeing from improved air quality and warmer, drier homes.
However, not all New Zealanders will have the same access to low-emissions choices. Government needs to consider how to support some groups through the transition.
We can already see the physical impacts of climate change in Aotearoa today, and these changes are expected to continue. On a global scale, acting earlier to tackle climate change will reduce total emissions and help to reduce the severity of impacts that we experience. The difference in impacts between a global temperature rise of 1.5 ̊C and 2 ̊C is large and serious. Therefore, it is important that Aotearoa is aware of the impact that contributing to global action to reduce emissions could have on our country’s ability to adapt.
The climate transition could bring positive and negative environmental and ecological impacts. In addition to reducing our emissions, using low-carbon technologies and changing land practices could have broader environmental impacts, including on biodiversity, water quality and air quality.
This chapter looks at the environmental and ecological impacts from reducing emissions in the transport, energy, industry, buildings and land sectors,as well as the mitigation and adaptation link.
Chapter 17: Impacts on environment, ecology, and the ability to adapt to climate change (PDF 357 KB)
This document captures the feedback we heard about chapters in Part 5 of our Supporting Evidence. It summarises the key themes we heard during consultation, errors and misrepresentations, new evidence and analysis, and changes we made to each chapter.
Our vision of a ‘thriving, climate-resilient and low-emissions Aotearoa’ guides our approach to developing advice on policy direction. The wellbeing of the planet and the people of Aotearoa, and striving for an equitable and fair transition, remain our focus for reaching a better future.
In developing policy, the government needs to support and consider the wellbeing of Iwi/Māori. This includes balancing what is good for tangata, the whenua and the wai, upholding whakapapa, enhancing whanaungatanga, and ensuring intergenerational sustainability and prosperity. These are values that are supported by many New Zealanders.
This chapter presents our approach to developing our advice on the direction of policy for the emissions reduction plan. It outlines the different elements that will be needed to drive the necessary change. The chapter that follows presents advice on specific policy issues.
Transitioning to low emissions in Aotearoa requires changes across the whole economy and society. The Climate Change Commission (the Commission) has been tasked to advise on the direction of policy for the emissions reduction plan, which will outline the Government’s approach to reducing emissions across all sectors.
This chapter focuses on policy that is needed to support emissions reductions in different sectors of the economy, policies that cut across sectors and measures to address the impacts of mitigation policies. In preparing our analysis and advice on the emissions reduction plan, we have drawn on modelling, analysis of emissions reduction measures, uptake barriers, potential impacts and pathways for meeting the 2050 emissions reductions targets (2050 targets).
Chapter 19: The direction of policy for Aotearoa (PDF 1.1 MB)